Meteorological causes of extreme precipitation events that lead to flooding in Southeast Michigan

Flooding is a hydrological phenomenon influenced by storms generating extreme precipitation with destructive impacts on various sectors, including infrastructure. The temporal and spatial features of storms vary based on storm types. Understanding the dominant mechanisms driving extreme precipitation is essential for flood risk assessment and preparedness. The objective of this study is to understand the meteorological causes, specifically referring to the type of storm systems responsible for generating extreme precipitation, by studying historical cases that exceed geographically varying thresholds using the ECMWF Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) precipitation in Southeast Michigan and validated using Stage IV data. Analyzing data from 1991 to 2023, we found that daily extreme precipitation predominantly occurs during the warm season (June to September). Furthermore, we categorized identified cases based on meteorological phenomena, including Fronts (FRT), Extratropical Cyclones (ETC), Tropical Cyclones (TC), and internally driven Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS). The HURDAT2 and CNECT Extratropical Cyclone project databases were used to detect TC and ETC. To identify FRT and MCS, we employed the Thermal Front Parameter and the Python FLEXible object TRacKeR (PyFLEXTRKR) objective identification methods. Our results indicate that the primary mechanisms responsible for extreme precipitation are FRTs, followed by ETCs, TCs, and MCSs. Storm types show differences in spatiotemporal distributions, with FRTs, ETC-FRTs, and TCs posing a higher risk of generating the most extreme conditions. The results emphasize that the hydrologic response depends on the type of storm, providing additional information for decision-making.

Name thesis:degree_name

M.S.

Level thesis:degree_level

Thesis

Discipline thesis:degree_discipline

Atmospheric Sciences

Grantor

University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign

Year dc:date

2025

Author dc:creator

• Putri, Deffi Munadiyat

Contributors dc:contributor

• Dominguez, Francina
• Jewett, Brian
• Trapp, Robert Jeffrey
• Proistosescu, Christian

• Extreme Precipitation
• Flooding

Statement dc:rights

• Copyright 2025 Deffi Putri

Language dc:language

en, eng

Handle dc:identifier

https://hdl.handle.net/2142/129635

OAI record oai:identifier

https://www.ideals.illinois.edu/oai-pmh?verb=GetRecord&metadataPrefix=etdms&identifier=oai%3Awww.ideals.illinois.edu%3A2142%2F129635