Population decline or power disparity? Explaining changes in school accessibility in Chicago

This study explores how demographic changes, specifically population decline, school-age population shifts, and population aging, affect access to neighborhood public schools in Chicago. The research addresses three central questions: whether these demographic changes are significantly associated with changes in school accessibility, whether school accessibility inevitably declines in areas with intensified aging and population loss, and what explains cases where accessibility is maintained despite demographic decline. Using census tracts as the unit of analysis, the study focuses on public elementary and high schools in 2012 and 2022. Accessibility was measured through a three-tiered classification incorporating walking-time catchment areas and school boundary overlays, and a weighted score was calculated for each tract. Hierarchical multiple regression and weighted least squares were employed to assess the effects of demographic, socioeconomic, and community-level factors. In addition, an exception analysis was conducted to identify patterns among tracts where demographic trends and accessibility outcomes diverged. Results show that accessibility declined in the majority of tracts, with 373 tracts losing access to elementary schools and 417 to high schools. Contrary to the initial hypothesis, total population decline had a positive association with school accessibility for both elementary and high schools. However, population aging and school-age population decline were negatively associated with accessibility, aligning with the original expectations. The exception analysis further revealed that elementary school accessibility was more sensitive to demographic shifts, while high school accessibility responded more strongly to socioeconomic conditions such as income and crime. This study contributes to the growing literature on educational spatial equity by empirically demonstrating how demographic and socioeconomic dynamics interact differently by school type. It highlights the need for differentiated planning and funding strategies that consider both demographic composition and neighborhood context to ensure equitable access to public education.

Name thesis:degree_name

M.U.P.

Level thesis:degree_level

Thesis

Discipline thesis:degree_discipline

Urban Planning

Grantor

University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign

Year dc:date

2025

Author dc:creator

• Hyeon, Shinmyeong

Contributors dc:contributor

• Greenlee, Andrew Jordan
• Fang, Kerry

• Spatial Justice
• Accessibility To Education
• Demographic Transition

Statement dc:rights

• Copyright 2025 Shinmyeong Hyeon

Language dc:language

en, eng

Handle dc:identifier

https://hdl.handle.net/2142/129350

OAI record oai:identifier

https://www.ideals.illinois.edu/oai-pmh?verb=GetRecord&metadataPrefix=etdms&identifier=oai%3Awww.ideals.illinois.edu%3A2142%2F129350