Lasting peace: the effects of amnesty accompanied by power-sharing agreements

Past civil war studies indicate that power-sharing agreements are positively associated with the durability of peace, and including multiple power-sharing dimensions further reduces the risk of repeated civil wars when civil wars end with power-sharing agreements. Surprisingly, however, the outcomes of power-sharing agreements vary. Some power-sharing agreements lead to durable peace, while other power-sharing agreements lead to another civil war shortly after signing the agreements. For instance, both Rwanda and Liberia experienced ruthless civil wars, and the two civil wars ended with negotiated settlements including multiple dimensions of power-sharing provisions. While Liberia is experiencing relatively durable peace after signing the Accra Peace Agreement, Rwanda, on the other hand, experienced another civil war soon after signing the Arusha Accord. Based on the positive association suggested from the extant power-sharing literature, the contrary cases of the Civil Wars in Rwanda and Liberia make us puzzled. Then, what explains the variation? This dissertation explores factors that influence the durability of peace when civil wars end with power-sharing agreements. I argue civil wars are more likely to lead to durable peace when power-sharing agreements are accompanied by an amnesty provision. Granting amnesty alleviates former belligerents' commitment problem in two ways and thus contributes to lasting peace when civil wars end with power-sharing between former warring parties. Providing amnesty would 1) reduce the chances of punishment regarding war-time crimes and 2) reduce the distrust between former enemies by presenting costly and credible signals. In this dissertation, I analyze 78 peace agreements that ended civil wars between 1989 and 2006 using logistic regression analysis. The results of the logit model provide strong support for the argument made in this research.

Name thesis:degree_name

Ph.D.

Level thesis:degree_level

Dissertation

Discipline thesis:degree_discipline

Political Science

Grantor

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Year dc:date

2023

Author dc:creator

• Cho, Jaeseok

Contributors dc:contributor

• Dai, Xinyuan
• Vasquez, John
• Prorok, Alyssa
• Leff, Carol

• Civil War
• Power-sharing

Statement dc:rights

• Copyright 2023 Jaeseok Cho

Language dc:language

en, eng

Handle dc:identifier

https://hdl.handle.net/2142/121325

OAI record oai:identifier

https://www.ideals.illinois.edu/oai-pmh?verb=GetRecord&metadataPrefix=etdms&identifier=oai%3Awww.ideals.illinois.edu%3A2142%2F121325