The impact of outgroup trust on voting behavior in ethnically salient contexts

Scholars of ethnic politics argue that voting, a key feature of democracy, may actually hinder democratic consolidation when citizens vote along ethnic lines. This project considers how ethnic voting might be overcome and individuals encouraged to vote across ethnic lines by examining the role of outgroup trust. I integrate theories of social trust with the ethnic voting scholarship and ask, in contexts where ethnicity is a salient identity, can an increase in trust across ethnic groups affect individuals’ voting behavior, and if so, through what mechanisms does trust motivate people to engaging in cross-ethnic voting? Using secondary data, I find that, in sub-Saharan Africa, outgroup trust is a significant predictor of cross-ethnic voting. While this correlation is present across both ethnic majority and minority group members, the marginal effect is greater among ethnic minority group members. I then test for the effect of outgroup trust on cross-ethnic voting using an imagined intergroup contact stimulus embedded in survey experiments conducted among convenience samples of undergraduate students in the U.S., Myanmar migrants in the U.S., and Myanmar migrants in Thailand. I find evidence for an indirect effect of imagined intergroup contact on cross-ethnic voting via an increase in outgroup trust among ethnic minority undergraduate students, Myanmar migrants from the ethnic majority group living in the United States, and Myanmar migrants with high levels of ethnic salience living in Thailand. These results can be interpreted as outgroup trust being of greater importance to those whose ethnic status is unstable and weak. Lastly, I test for the mechanisms through which outgroup trust leads to cross-ethnic voting using survey experimental data among Myanmar migrants in Thailand. Looking at a network mechanism, an information receptivity mechanism, and a collective action mechanism, I do not find support for any of the three mechanisms.

Name thesis:degree_name

Ph.D.

Level thesis:degree_level

Dissertation

Discipline thesis:degree_discipline

Political Science

Grantor

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Year dc:date

2023

Author dc:creator

• Shin, Hyo-Won

Contributors dc:contributor

• Winters, Matthew S.
• Wong, Cara
• Rudolph, Thomas J.
• Livny, Avital

• Social Capital
• Outgroup Trust
• Voting Behavior
• Ethnic Politics
• Southeast Asia

Statement dc:rights

• Copyright 2023 Hyo-Won Shin

Language dc:language

en, eng

Handle dc:identifier

https://hdl.handle.net/2142/121303

OAI record oai:identifier

https://www.ideals.illinois.edu/oai-pmh?verb=GetRecord&metadataPrefix=etdms&identifier=oai%3Awww.ideals.illinois.edu%3A2142%2F121303