Change in the frequency of tornado activity in China with climate change

Global climate change affects weather systems across all scales, but the uncertainty of this effect increases with decreasing scale. Tornadoes are examples of small-scale systems that can cause extreme damage, thus emphasizing the importance of estimating possible trends in their future occurrences. One way of doing so is to use output from global climate model (GCM) simulations to calculate environmental parameters, including the significant tornado parameter (STP), which can then serve as tornado-occurrence proxies. This is a form of statistical downscaling. Using seven models contributed to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), we computed STP and other environmental parameters over the region of China for the historical time period 1970-1999 and for the future time period 2070-2099 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 585. Across most models, STP is higher in the future over the Northeastern, Southern, and Central and Eastern China. An average increase of 1-3 days per spring season of tornado-favorable conditions is projected for Central and Eastern China in the future, and 0.5-2 days per summer season is projected for all three regions. The change in CAPE seems to be the most influential factor to the change in tornado-favorable environments during the spring, and the change in kinetic parameters gain more weight during the summer. We also find more inter-annual variability, or volatility, with tornado-favorable conditions in the future. This research will provide hazard assessments to inform future decision making.

Name thesis:degree_name

M.S.

Level thesis:degree_level

Thesis

Discipline thesis:degree_discipline

Atmospheric Sciences

Grantor

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Year dc:date

2022

Author dc:creator

• Wang, Songning

Contributors dc:contributor

• Trapp, Robert Jeffrey
• Wang, Zhuo
• Sriver, Ryan

• Tornado
• China
• CMIP6
• Enviromental parameter
• Climate change

Statement dc:rights

• Copyright 2022 Songning Wang

Language dc:language

en, eng

Handle dc:identifier

https://hdl.handle.net/2142/116265

OAI record oai:identifier

https://www.ideals.illinois.edu/oai-pmh?verb=GetRecord&metadataPrefix=etdms&identifier=oai%3Awww.ideals.illinois.edu%3A2142%2F116265