The influence of temporal detail and inter-annual resource variability on energy planning models

Decarbonizing the United States energy system is a challenging task. The situation is exacerbated by the lack of strong federal climate policy, leaving individual states and institutions to drive the energy sector towards net-zero carbon emissions. ESOM tools use linear programming to develop policy insights that may help achieve full decarbonization. However, there is a widely recognized tradeoff between model complexity and computational cost. Adding spatial, temporal, and technological details make these models more realistic, but may make them computationally intractable. Previously, most ESOM studies prioritize technology options over spatial or temporal detail. This choice emphasizes the role of technology costs, such as fuel and capital costs, on energy policy without considering operational challenges. This thesis uses the ESOM, Temoa to model Illinois’ and the University of Illinois’ energy systems and develops the PyGenesys tool to facilitate sensitivity analysis. The sensitivities considered in this work are temporal resolution and the annual capacity factors of wind and solar energy, or the inter-annual variability. The results of the time resolution study showed that any temporal aggregation above an hourly level may generate misleading results that minimizes the roles of firm clean power and energy storage. Additionally, the role of wind energy is overestimated in models with less temporal detail, and the roles of solar energy and advanced nuclear reactors are underestimated. The study of inter-annual variability showed that energy systems with majority variable intermittent renewables, such as solar and wind, that exclude clean firm power from nuclear power plants exhibit higher energy costs with nearly 63 times the variance of systems that use a majority of clean firm power. Additionally, the amount of capacity necessary to meet electricity demand is greater and more uncertain in systems with high renewable penetration. Finally, based on the results in each of the sensitivity analyses, this thesis recommends that Illinois continues supporting its existing nuclear fleet with “zero emissions credits” and expand clean firm capacity with advanced nuclear reactors by lifting the moratorium on new nuclear builds.

Name thesis:degree_name

M.S.

Level thesis:degree_level

Thesis

Discipline thesis:degree_discipline

Nuclear, Plasma, Radiolgc Engr

Grantor

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Year dc:date

2022

Author dc:creator

• Dotson, Samuel G.

Contributors dc:contributor

• Munk, Madicken
• Stubbins, James F

• Advanced Nuclear
• Energy Systems
• Linear Programming
• Temporal Complexity
• Resource Variability

Statement dc:rights

• Copyright 2022 Samuel G. Dotson

Language dc:language

en, eng

Handle dc:identifier

https://hdl.handle.net/2142/115793

OAI record oai:identifier

https://www.ideals.illinois.edu/oai-pmh?verb=GetRecord&metadataPrefix=etdms&identifier=oai%3Awww.ideals.illinois.edu%3A2142%2F115793