How accurate are interest inventories? A quantitative review of career choice hit rates

Every year, millions of people use interest inventories to help them make educational and career choices. The present meta-analysis examines the criterion-related validity of interest inventories in predicting career choice outcomes, such as college major choice and occupational membership. This analysis of predictive hit rates incorporates over 75 years of research investigating the accuracy of interest inventories. Using a binomial-normal meta-analytic model to quantitatively estimate the overall hit rate, the present analysis found that measured interests attain an estimated predictive accuracy rate of 50.3% in successfully predicting career choice. Due to a substantial amount of true heterogeneity in effect sizes, we tested several potential moderators. In particular, the hit rate accuracy was moderated by concurrent versus predictive criterion assessment, criterion interest category, interest inventory, type of interest inventory scale, career choice criterion, method used to match criterion to a scale, and hit rate method. Additionally, the present study is an attempt to reintroduce base rates into the evaluation of predictive accuracy. Implications for future research are discussed.

Name thesis:degree_name

M.S.

Level thesis:degree_level

Thesis

Discipline thesis:degree_discipline

Psychology

Grantor

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Year dc:date

2019

Author dc:creator

• Hanna, Alexis Victoria

Contributors dc:contributor

• Rounds, James
• Newman, Daniel A.

• Interest inventory
• validity
• career choice

Statement dc:rights

• Copyright 2018 Alexis V. Hanna

Language dc:language

en

Handle dc:identifier

http://hdl.handle.net/2142/102859

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:www.ideals.illinois.edu:2142/102859