{"id":{"repo_id":"uiuc","oai_identifier":"oai:www.ideals.illinois.edu:2142/102859"},"canonical_url":"https://search.dev.ndltd.org/etd/uiuc/oai:www.ideals.illinois.edu:2142/102859","repository":{"repo_id":"uiuc","name":"University of Illinois - Urbana-Champaign","base_url":"https://www.ideals.illinois.edu/oai-pmh"},"display":{"title":"How accurate are interest inventories? A quantitative review of career choice hit rates","abstract":"Every year, millions of people use interest inventories to help them make educational and career choices. The present meta-analysis examines the criterion-related validity of interest inventories in predicting career choice outcomes, such as college major choice and occupational membership. This analysis of predictive hit rates incorporates over 75 years of research investigating the accuracy of interest inventories. Using a binomial-normal meta-analytic model to quantitatively estimate the overall hit rate, the present analysis found that measured interests attain an estimated predictive accuracy rate of 50.3% in successfully predicting career choice. Due to a substantial amount of true heterogeneity in effect sizes, we tested several potential moderators. In particular, the hit rate accuracy was moderated by concurrent versus predictive criterion assessment, criterion interest category, interest inventory, type of interest inventory scale, career choice criterion, method used to match criterion to a scale, and hit rate method. Additionally, the present study is an attempt to reintroduce base rates into the evaluation of predictive accuracy. Implications for future research are discussed.","abstract_html":"Every year, millions of people use interest inventories to help them make educational and career choices. The present meta-analysis examines the criterion-related validity of interest inventories in predicting career choice outcomes, such as college major choice and occupational membership. This analysis of predictive hit rates incorporates over 75 years of research investigating the accuracy of interest inventories. Using a binomial-normal meta-analytic model to quantitatively estimate the overall hit rate, the present analysis found that measured interests attain an estimated predictive accuracy rate of 50.3% in successfully predicting career choice. Due to a substantial amount of true heterogeneity in effect sizes, we tested several potential moderators. In particular, the hit rate accuracy was moderated by concurrent versus predictive criterion assessment, criterion interest category, interest inventory, type of interest inventory scale, career choice criterion, method used to match criterion to a scale, and hit rate method. Additionally, the present study is an attempt to reintroduce base rates into the evaluation of predictive accuracy. Implications for future research are discussed.","abstract_has_math":false,"creators":["Hanna, Alexis Victoria"],"institution":"University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign","degree_name":"M.S.","degree_level":"Thesis","degree_discipline":"Psychology","degree_department":null,"school":null,"contributors":["Rounds, James","Newman, Daniel A."],"advisors":[],"committee_chairs":[],"committee_members":[],"year":2019,"date_issued":"2019-02-07T20:44:29Z","date_published":"2019-02-07T20:44:29Z","updated_at":"2026-07-22T22:24:42Z","subjects":["Interest inventory","validity","career choice"],"languages":["en"],"rights":["Copyright 2018 Alexis V. Hanna"],"rights_urls":[],"identifier_entries":[]},"links":{"outbound_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/2142/102859","outbound_label":"Handle","outbound_source":"dc:identifier"},"metadata_groups":[{"id":"people","label":"People","entries":[{"key":"dc:contributor","label":"Contributor","values":["Rounds, James","Newman, Daniel A."]},{"key":"dc:creator","label":"Author","values":["Hanna, Alexis Victoria"]}]},{"id":"academic_context","label":"Academic Context","entries":[{"key":"dc:date","label":"Dc Date","values":["2019-02-07T20:44:29Z","2021-02-08T10:15:11Z","2018-12-11","2018-12"]},{"key":"dc:type","label":"Dc Type","values":["text"]},{"key":"thesis:degree_discipline","label":"Discipline","values":["Psychology"]},{"key":"thesis:degree_level","label":"Degree Level","values":["Thesis"]},{"key":"thesis:degree_name","label":"Degree Name","values":["M.S."]},{"key":"thesis:institution_name","label":"Thesis Institution Name","values":["University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign"]}]},{"id":"subjects_keywords","label":"Subjects and Keywords","entries":[{"key":"dc:subject","label":"Dc Subject","values":["Interest inventory","validity","career choice"]}]},{"id":"language_rights","label":"Language and Rights","entries":[{"key":"dc:language","label":"Dc Language","values":["en"]},{"key":"dc:rights","label":"Dc Rights","values":["Copyright 2018 Alexis V. Hanna"]}]},{"id":"identifiers","label":"Identifiers","entries":[{"key":"dc:identifier","label":"Identifier","values":["http://hdl.handle.net/2142/102859"]}]},{"id":"additional","label":"Additional Metadata","entries":[{"key":"dc:description","label":"Description","values":["Every year, millions of people use interest inventories to help them make educational and career choices. The present meta-analysis examines the criterion-related validity of interest inventories in predicting career choice outcomes, such as college major choice and occupational membership. This analysis of predictive hit rates incorporates over 75 years of research investigating the accuracy of interest inventories. Using a binomial-normal meta-analytic model to quantitatively estimate the overall hit rate, the present analysis found that measured interests attain an estimated predictive accuracy rate of 50.3% in successfully predicting career choice. Due to a substantial amount of true heterogeneity in effect sizes, we tested several potential moderators. In particular, the hit rate accuracy was moderated by concurrent versus predictive criterion assessment, criterion interest category, interest inventory, type of interest inventory scale, career choice criterion, method used to match criterion to a scale, and hit rate method. Additionally, the present study is an attempt to reintroduce base rates into the evaluation of predictive accuracy. Implications for future research are discussed.","Submission published under a 24 month embargo labeled 'U of I Access', the embargo will last until 2020-12-01","The student, Alexis Hanna, accepted the attached license on 2018-12-11 at 14:49.","The student, Alexis Hanna, submitted this Thesis for approval on 2018-12-11 at 15:00.","This Thesis was approved for publication on 2018-12-11 at 16:36.","DSpace SAF Submission Ingestion Package generated from Vireo submission #13292 on 2019-02-07 at 14:23:26","Made available in DSpace on 2019-02-07T20:44:29Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 HANNA-THESIS-2018.pdf: 480654 bytes, checksum: dbeb987f805c90a0ab17f32cd0e07e0e (MD5) LICENSE.txt: 4207 bytes, checksum: 3262dfde9ed73e4018e8341a312a7427 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-12-11","Embargo set by: Seth Robbins for item 109885 Lift date: 2021-02-07T20:44:35Z Reason: Author requested U of Illinois access only (OA after 2yrs) in Vireo ETD system","U of I Only Restriction Lifted for Item 109885 on 2021-02-08T10:15:11Z."]},{"key":"dc:format","label":"Dc Format","values":["application/pdf"]},{"key":"dc:title","label":"Title","values":["How accurate are interest inventories? A quantitative review of career choice hit rates"]}]}],"canonical_facts":{"dc:contributor":["Rounds, James","Newman, Daniel A."],"dc:creator":["Hanna, Alexis Victoria"],"dc:date":["2019-02-07T20:44:29Z","2021-02-08T10:15:11Z","2018-12-11","2018-12"],"dc:description":["Every year, millions of people use interest inventories to help them make educational and career choices. The present meta-analysis examines the criterion-related validity of interest inventories in predicting career choice outcomes, such as college major choice and occupational membership. This analysis of predictive hit rates incorporates over 75 years of research investigating the accuracy of interest inventories. Using a binomial-normal meta-analytic model to quantitatively estimate the overall hit rate, the present analysis found that measured interests attain an estimated predictive accuracy rate of 50.3% in successfully predicting career choice. Due to a substantial amount of true heterogeneity in effect sizes, we tested several potential moderators. In particular, the hit rate accuracy was moderated by concurrent versus predictive criterion assessment, criterion interest category, interest inventory, type of interest inventory scale, career choice criterion, method used to match criterion to a scale, and hit rate method. Additionally, the present study is an attempt to reintroduce base rates into the evaluation of predictive accuracy. Implications for future research are discussed.","Submission published under a 24 month embargo labeled 'U of I Access', the embargo will last until 2020-12-01","The student, Alexis Hanna, accepted the attached license on 2018-12-11 at 14:49.","The student, Alexis Hanna, submitted this Thesis for approval on 2018-12-11 at 15:00.","This Thesis was approved for publication on 2018-12-11 at 16:36.","DSpace SAF Submission Ingestion Package generated from Vireo submission #13292 on 2019-02-07 at 14:23:26","Made available in DSpace on 2019-02-07T20:44:29Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 HANNA-THESIS-2018.pdf: 480654 bytes, checksum: dbeb987f805c90a0ab17f32cd0e07e0e (MD5) LICENSE.txt: 4207 bytes, checksum: 3262dfde9ed73e4018e8341a312a7427 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-12-11","Embargo set by: Seth Robbins for item 109885 Lift date: 2021-02-07T20:44:35Z Reason: Author requested U of Illinois access only (OA after 2yrs) in Vireo ETD system","U of I Only Restriction Lifted for Item 109885 on 2021-02-08T10:15:11Z."],"dc:format":["application/pdf"],"dc:identifier":["http://hdl.handle.net/2142/102859"],"dc:language":["en"],"dc:rights":["Copyright 2018 Alexis V. Hanna"],"dc:subject":["Interest inventory","validity","career choice"],"dc:title":["How accurate are interest inventories? A quantitative review of career choice hit rates"],"dc:type":["text"],"thesis:degree_discipline":["Psychology"],"thesis:degree_level":["Thesis"],"thesis:degree_name":["M.S."],"thesis:institution_name":["University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign"]},"updated_at":"2026-07-22T22:24:42Z"}