Three possible scenarios for the market development of electric vehicle integration in Iceland in 2025

In the fast-growing technology of the modern world, non-emission vehicles are the focus for today’s automotive producers. Iceland is a country that has all the necessary resources and capabilities for integrating electric vehicles. This research introduces a unique way of predicting the electric vehicle integration in Iceland, with supportive data, consisting of interviews with professionals, registration datasets and market surveys. The thesis is concerned with both market and decision analysis methods, such as analyzing the market development with PESTLE analysis, and then using scenario planning to conduct three possible scenarios. These scenarios make possible the visualization of how the future of electric vehicle integration in the Icelandic automotive market could be in 2025. The goal is to see the world in a new way, with a unique insight that helps to understand the predictability and uncertainty of electric vehicle integration. The intention is to benefit Icelandic consumers who are interested in buying an electric vehicle, as well as all involved in the automotive sector in Iceland. The research aims to affect the mental models of the decision makers. Stakeholders in the study are all Icelanders and automotive producers, as the integration of electric vehicles has both economic and environmental effect. The results of the research indicate that the three scenarios are: (1) Optimistic Scenario with rapid growth to 50% of market share and a turnover of 107,5 billion ISK in 2025, (2) Pessimistic Scenario with moderate growth to of 25% of the market share with a 53,75 billion ISK turnover, and (3) Status Quo Scenario with a neutralized market share of 10,6% and a 22,79 billion ISK turnover. The support for these scenarios is market development analysis with forecasting modeling, an internet survey for consumers, and in-depth interviews with seven highly qualified managers and specialists involved in electric vehicle integration in Iceland. It should be noted that electric vehicles are still new to the Icelandic automotive industry, so there is a shortage of data. Keywords: Scenario planning, Decision analysis, In-depth interviews, Electric vehicles, Icelandic automotive market, Forecasting, Linear regression, Market development, PESTLE analysis.

Author dc:creator

• Knútur Steinn Kárason 1991-

Contributors dc:contributor

• Háskólinn í Reykjavík

• Rekstrarverkfræði
• Meistaraprófsritgerðir
• Rafbílar
• Markaðsgreining
• Spálíkön
• Tækni- og verkfræðideild
• Engineering management
• Electric vehicles
• Market analysis
• School of Science and Engineering

Language dc:language.iso

en

Handle dc:identifier.uri

http://hdl.handle.net/1946/31388

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:skemman.is:1946/31388