The impact of US-China relations on Taiwan's military spending (1966-1992).

Previous research has shown that Taiwan's military spending is affected either by China's military buildup or the US's military pipeline. This study investigates whether it is also true an ongoing US-China relationship has dynamic effects. Three major findings are obtained from the statistical analyses. First and foremost, the level of US-China conflict has a contemporaneous positive effect on Taiwan's military spending. Second, the analyses also indicate that the volatility of US-China relations has negative effects on Taiwan's military spending. This finding suggests that instability in US-China relations will prompt Taiwan to decrease its military spending due to a higher amount of perceived security on the one hand, and Taiwan wants to avoid further provoking China on the other. Third, analyses indicate that an error correction model fares better than a simple budgetary incremental model in explaining the re-equilibrating effects of GNP growth on Taiwan's military spending. Overall, the results demonstrate the interplay of domestic and international constraints and may help to predict what will be the expected military spending when Taiwan's economy changes. I suggest that Taiwan's military spending is likely to be influenced by US-China relations as well as by foreign investment and domestic economic constraints as long as the United States policy toward the Taiwan problem remains unchanged.

Grantor dc:publisher

University of North Texas

Year dc:date

2002

Author dc:creator

• Yu, Tsung-Chi Max

Contributors dc:contributor

• Poe, Steven
• Tan, Alexander
• Clarke, Harold D.
• Kim, Tae Guk
• Books, John W.

• Taiwan -- Armed Forces -- Appropriations and expenditures.
• United States -- Foreign relations -- China.
• China -- Foreign relations -- United States.
• US-China relations.
• military spending
• external threat
• arms race
• security
• ECM

Statement dc:rights

• Public
• Copyright
• Yu, Tsung-Chi Max
• Copyright is held by the author, unless otherwise noted. All rights reserved.

Language dc:language

English

Identifier

oclc: 54829040
https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc3100/
ark: ark:/67531/metadc3100

OAI identifier oai:identifier

info:ark/67531/metadc3100