An Analysis of Health Sector Trends: Incorporating Theories of Unbalanced Growth

International studies of health care expenditures find income elasticities of aggregate demand for health care in the range of 1.0 to 1.5. Applying these same models to a U.S. time series using ordinary least squares to estimate a cointegrating relationship yields estimates in this range. Application of more recent time-series methods yields income elasticities of less than one, providing evidence that health care is not a luxury good in aggregate. While we lack the data and the econometric techniques to provide precise estimates, it appears that at most 45 percent of the growth of health care expenditures is preventable without welfare loss through changes in the insurance system and productivity of health services. This portion is likely to be significantly lower in practical terms.

Name thesis:degree_name

Ph.D.

Level thesis:degree_level

Dissertation

Discipline thesis:degree_discipline

Economics

Grantor

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Year dc:date

2015

Author dc:creator

• Maciosek, Michael V.

Contributors dc:contributor

• Richard Arnould

• Health Sciences, Health Care Management

Language dc:language

eng

Identifier

(MiAaPQ)AAI9737185

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:www.ideals.illinois.edu:2142/85613