The Role of Expert Advice Formation Individual and Group Decision Making

This paper examined individual and group level layperson decision making when information from multiple experts is available. A total of 767 participants read four scenarios with various forms of expert advice, and then made decisions and gave confidence ratings. As expert advice format became more precise (ambiguous statements to numerical probabilities), individuals and groups tended to make more nearly optimal decisions, with higher consensus across decision makers. However, decision confidence and satisfaction peaked when expert advice was in a verbal form, which was not the most precise form. In a surprising contrast to most group research, group level confidence ratings did not differ significantly from those of individual decision makers, nor did groups make substantially better decisions. Implications of these results for selection of expert advisor presentation format are discussed.

Name thesis:degree_name

Ph.D.

Level thesis:degree_level

Dissertation

Discipline thesis:degree_discipline

Psychology

Grantor

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Year dc:date

2015

Author dc:creator

• Rantilla, Adrian Kramer

Contributors dc:contributor

• Budescu, David V.
• Davis, James H.

• Psychology, Cognitive

Language dc:language

eng

Identifier

(MiAaPQ)AAI9990120

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:www.ideals.illinois.edu:2142/82324