Response Surface Method for Time-Variant Reliability Analysis

An efficient, approximate method for computing the structural reliability of uncertain systems subjected to time-varying loads is presented in this study. The method uses response surface methodology and the fast integration scheme developed by Wen and Chen (1987). The mean and coefficient of variation of the maximum response of the structure are modeled by second order polynomials fitted using central composite designs applied to data from response time histories. The structural failure probability conditional upon the uncertain system parameter values is assumed to follow an extreme value distribution, the parameters of which are fitted by the response surface models. The fast integration scheme provides a formulation of a limit state function which incorporates this information. The failure probability over a specified time interval can then be evaluated using Monte Carlo simulation. Four numerical examples are solved by the proposed approach, with results compared against approximate solutions by existing methods. An empirical measure is introduced to provide information on the goodness-of-fit of the response surface models. The proposed method is shown to be particularly efficient when used for analyzing the sensitivity of the failure probability to the distribution parameters of the uncertain system parameters.

Name thesis:degree_name

Ph.D.

Level thesis:degree_level

Dissertation

Discipline thesis:degree_discipline

Civil Engineering

Grantor

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Year dc:date

2014

Author dc:creator

• Yao, Timothy Hun-Jen

Contributors dc:contributor

• Wen, Y.K.

• Mathematics
• Statistics
• Engineering, Civil

Identifier

(UMI)AAI9329206

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:www.ideals.illinois.edu:2142/72203