Physical and Economic Models of Natural Resource Scarcity: Theory and Application to Petroleum Development and Production in the Lower 48 United States, 1955-1985

Physical and economic models of the costs of developing and producing petroleum in the lower 48 United States were calculated and compared for the 1955 to 1985 period. The physical scarcity model calculated the energy return on investment (EROI) for petroleum development and production. The EROI is the ratio of the petroleum energy added to reserves or produced to the energy used in the development and production process. The economic scarcity model calculated the average cost of developing and producing petroleum. Statistical trend analysis was applied to the EROI and average cost time series. Both models indicated increasing scarcity at the development stage was evident by the mid-1960's. The EROI for production increased showed decreasing scarcity through the early part of the period, followed by increasing scarcity in the 1970's. Average production costs showed no trend through the early 1970's, after which they exhibited increasing scarcity. The oil price shocks had a significant cost-increasing impact.

Name thesis:degree_name

Ph.D.

Level thesis:degree_level

Dissertation

Discipline thesis:degree_discipline

Geography

Grantor

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Year dc:date

2014

Author dc:creator

• Cleveland, Cutler John, Jr.

Contributors dc:contributor

• Hannon, Bruce

• Geography
• Economics, General
• Environmental Sciences

Identifier

(UMI)AAI8908656

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:www.ideals.illinois.edu:2142/70656