Using avalanche statistics to forecast failure in models of earthquake faults and magnets

Avalanches - bursts of activity spanning a vast range of sizes - occur in a wide variety of dynamical systems, such as magnets, granular matter, earthquake faults, neuronal networks, and of course the classic example of snow flows on mountains. By studying the statistics of avalanche sizes, we can understand the response of such systems to external driving forces, as well and their susceptibility to catastrophic failures. In this thesis, I present my work using models of avalanche statistics to study large failure avalanches. In particular, I use these avalanche models to explore statistical signals which can predict the likelihood of large earthquakes in a simple model of earthquake statistics. This analysis may also have applications to predicting seizures in neuronal networks. I also explore the eff ect that coupling has in models of disordered magnets which yield giant magnetization-reversal avalanches, which may have applications to predicting failures in power grid networks.

Name thesis:degree_name

Ph.D.

Level thesis:degree_level

Dissertation

Discipline thesis:degree_discipline

Physics

Grantor

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Year dc:date

2013

Author dc:creator

• Brinkman, Braden

Contributors dc:contributor

• Dahmen, Karin A.
• Weaver, Richard L.
• Weissman, Michael B.
• Thaler, Jonathan J.

• avalanches
• earthquakes
• magnets
• earthquake prediction
• correlations
• Failure
• random field Ising model

Statement dc:rights

• Copyright 2013 by Braden Anthony Wirum Brinkman. All rights reserved.

Language dc:language

en

Handle dc:identifier

http://hdl.handle.net/2142/45611

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:www.ideals.illinois.edu:2142/45611