Renewable electric power systems energy yield and performance estimation

This dissertation presents models for reliability assessment, energy yield estimation, and uncertainty analysis of renewable electric power systems. We propose system performability models that describe system attributes while acknowledging failures and repairs in constituent elements. Two broad classes of models are investigated: i) Markov reliability and reward models, and ii) Stochastic hybrid systems (SHS) models. Conventional Markov models capture attributes that are largely static-the only dynamics are due to changes in system configuration due to failures and repairs in constituent elements. On the other hand, SHS can model a wide variety of dynamic phenomena, and provide significant flexibility over Markov models. From an applications perspective, we propose Markov reward models to estimate the performability of photovoltaic energy conversion systems (PVECS) and wind energy conversion systems (WECS). A major impediment in formulating these models is the lack of precise data on model parameters, e.g., component failure and repair rates. Additionally, inputs to these models (e.g., incident insolation in PVECS and wind speed in WECS) are inherently uncertain. Therefore, to ensure validity of the results, we propose set-theoretic and probabilistic methods for uncertainty analysis in these models. With regard to SHS, we first demonstrate how Markov reliability/reward models are a type of SHS. We also present applications to stochastic small-signal modeling of power systems. Case studies demonstrate how to quantify the impact of renewable resources uncertainty on power system dynamics.

Name thesis:degree_name

Ph.D.

Level thesis:degree_level

Dissertation

Discipline thesis:degree_discipline

Electrical & Computer Engr

Grantor

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Year dc:date

2013

Author dc:creator

• Dhople, Sairaj V.

Contributors dc:contributor

• Domínguez-García, Alejandro D.
• Krein, Philip T.
• Sauer, Peter W.
• DeVille, Lee
• Pilawa-Podgurski, Robert C.

• Markov models
• Stochastic hybrid systems
• Photovoltaic energy conversion systems
• Wind energy conversion systems
• Reliability

Statement dc:rights

• Copyright 2012 Sairaj Dhople

Language dc:language

en

Handle dc:identifier

http://hdl.handle.net/2142/42493

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:www.ideals.illinois.edu:2142/42493