Development of an econo-energy model and an introduction to a carbon and climate model for use in a nuclear energy analysis

Modern society has developed an ever increasing demand for energy to fuel population growth, increases in quality of life, and the advancement of third world countries. Currently, we feed our power needs with mostly carbon-based energy sources, which have an appreciable effect on the global climate. To continue advancing, society must develop alternative, low-carbon methods for energy production with both nuclear and renewable sources being complementary contributors. The possible shift to the increased use of alternative and nuclear technology brings with it an ever more pressing need to extrapolate future energy and emission scenarios. The objective of this thesis was to further develop an econo-energy model, the LOGICAL-1 model, and to outline a functional carbon and climate model for prototyping the economic and environmental impact of potential political scenarios. Projections of future population growth, carbon intensity, carbon usage, and energy usage were developed, and the results predicted a quadrupling of energy use and carbon use by the end of the twenty-first century. To determine the potential environmental ramifications, a basic climate and carbon model was developed and initially benchmarked against historical atmospheric carbon-dioxide concentration and temperature data. The results from the climate model predicted a 1C warming over the globally averaged surface temperature relative to 1990 AD and a doubling of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration by the end of the twenty-first century. The first targeted use of the LOGICAL-1 and climate-carbon model is to help determine the amount of future spent nuclear fuel that could potentially be accumulated during the twenty-first century based on arbitrary political and environmental scenarios. The basic outline for a spent nuclear fuel analysis is included.

Name thesis:degree_name

M.S.

Level thesis:degree_level

Thesis

Discipline thesis:degree_discipline

Nuclear, Plasma, Radiolgc Engr

Grantor

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Year dc:date

2012

Author dc:creator

• Milligan, Tim

Contributors dc:contributor

• Singer, Clifford E.
• Roy, William R.

• nuclear analysis
• climate model
• carbon model
• energy model
• economic model

Statement dc:rights

• Copyright 2012 Tim Milligan

Language dc:language

en

Handle dc:identifier

http://hdl.handle.net/2142/31168

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:www.ideals.illinois.edu:2142/31168