Modeling the technical means to produce nuclear weapons for providing accurate decision-making timetables

Government agencies, non-government organizations and academic institutions that focus on nuclear nonproliferation have demonstrated a limited capability to make comprehensive assessments of how far along a state is in the proliferation process. This deficiency exists despite the need to improve programmatic assessments of states that likely pose a risk of developing nuclear weapons. Modeling can help the end-user estimate the probable time required for a given state to complete a nuclear weapons program. This is highly attractive feature for policy makers who – with more accurate assessments – can make informed decisions. For any given state it is possible to use information on that state’s industrial strength, educational strength, and previous experiences with nuclear fuel cycle technology to assess that state’s capabilities and estimate a timeframe for that state to complete a nuclear weapons program. This body of research designates a governing equation for the model, discusses the technical attributes that are required for every nuclear weapons program, and discusses the process for designating values to each process variable. Beneficial applications for using this particular model and its limitations are also demonstrated and discussed.

Name thesis:degree_name

M.S.

Level thesis:degree_level

Thesis

Discipline thesis:degree_discipline

Nuclear, Plasma, Radiolgc Engr

Grantor

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Year dc:date

2012

Author dc:creator

• Duchene, Matthew

Contributors dc:contributor

• Axford, Roy A.

• Nuclear
• Nonproliferation
• Modeling
• Fuel cycle
• Nuclear weapons

Statement dc:rights

• Copyright 2012 Matthew Duchene

Language dc:language

en

Handle dc:identifier

http://hdl.handle.net/2142/30965

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:www.ideals.illinois.edu:2142/30965