The efficient market hypothesis and gambling on National Football League games

The efficient market hypothesis (EMH) for sport betting states that all publicly available information should be mirrored in betting lines, so there should be no bias of betting outcomes. Because of several similarities to financial markets, the sport betting market is thought of as a fair market. This investigation tests the EMH in the National Football League betting market from the 2002 to 2009 seasons. This study also examines whether there is a bias after a bye week in terms of the EMH. For this investigation we utilized a significance test for proportion and logistic regression. The findings suggest that, among other biases, favorites and favorites on the road won statistically more bets than their opponents after their bye week. This study provides relevant evidence of inefficiencies within NFL betting.

Name thesis:degree_name

M.S.

Level thesis:degree_level

Thesis

Discipline thesis:degree_discipline

Recreation, Sport, and Tourism

Grantor

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Year dc:date

2011

Author dc:creator

• Sung, Yoon Tae

Contributors dc:contributor

• Tainsky, Scott

• Efficient market hypothesis
• sport betting
• point spread
• rest
• National Football League (NFL)
• bye week

Statement dc:rights

• © 2011 Yoon Tae Sung

Language dc:language

en

Handle dc:identifier

http://hdl.handle.net/2142/24338

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:www.ideals.illinois.edu:2142/24338