Tornado track deviation: a possible approach to statistical warnings

Current warning strategies for tornadoes have significant spatial inefficiencies owing to uncertainty in tornado movement. Quantifying the historical deviation of tornado tracks in a given storm environment may allow for multiple warning probabilities and could decrease false alarm ratios while increasing effective lead time in warnings. Prior literature on this topic has been limited to small sample sizes investigating singular tornadoes or tornado outbreaks. Tornado tracks obtained from the Tornado Archive are correlated with storm mode and meteorological model data and plotted in a novel method allowing for statistical comparisons of tracks. Results quantify that tornadoes in environments with low storm-relative helicity move more erratically and therefore less predictably than tornadoes in environments with high storm-relative helicity.

Name thesis:degree_name

M.S.

Level thesis:degree_level

Thesis

Discipline thesis:degree_discipline

Atmospheric Sciences

Grantor

University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign

Year dc:date

2025

Author dc:creator

• Skocinski, Jessica Olivia

Contributors dc:contributor

• Jewett, Brian

• Tornado
• Severe Weather
• Meteorology

Statement dc:rights

• Copyright 2025 Jessica Skocinski

Language dc:language

en, eng

Handle dc:identifier

https://hdl.handle.net/2142/129975

OAI record oai:identifier

https://www.ideals.illinois.edu/oai-pmh?verb=GetRecord&metadataPrefix=etdms&identifier=oai%3Awww.ideals.illinois.edu%3A2142%2F129975