A new non-proliferation risk model for small nuclear reactors

A novel Bayesian Network model is developed to assess proliferation risk in Small Modular Nuclear Reactors (SMRs). The model accounts for various risks and provides a key repeatable and comparative risk index for current, proposed, and future SMRs being deployed to a selected use case and country. The model utilizes Bayesian networks to create a probabilistic graphical model composed of conditional dependencies representing key nonproliferation factors. The main factors include those related to specific reactor technology, the overall facility, and the deployment location. Notably, in addition to the reactor itself, the country, location type, and use case application are factored into each deployment scenario’s overall risk. A comprehensive review of key proliferation factors is conducted, and Bayesian network modeling is selected as a novel approach to quantify proliferation risk by generating a comparative risk index for current and future SMR deployments. The quantitative risk index is then normalized and scaled to provide a clear metric and assist a policymaker in deciding whether to deploy a reactor in a specific scenario. The model is applied to various scenarios, demonstrating the risk for different SMRs across a variety of inputs. The model is further applied to compare the deployment of a current SMR across a range of countries in distinct geographic regions, each with differing levels of nuclear experience and political stability. The risk model will contribute to ensuring nuclear nonproliferation, while enabling the sustainable deployment of advanced nuclear technologies.

Name thesis:degree_name

Ph.D.

Level thesis:degree_level

Dissertation

Discipline thesis:degree_discipline

Nuclear, Plasma, Radiolgc Engr

Grantor

University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign

Year dc:date

2025

Author dc:creator

• Dubinsky, Igor V

Contributors dc:contributor

• Uddin, Rizwan
• Singer, Clifford E
• Perdekamp, Matthias G
• Kozlowski, Tomasz

• Small Modular Nuclear Reactors
• SMRs
• Nonproliferation Risk

Statement dc:rights

• Copyright 2025 Igor Dubinsky

Language dc:language

en, eng

Handle dc:identifier

https://hdl.handle.net/2142/129752

OAI record oai:identifier

https://www.ideals.illinois.edu/oai-pmh?verb=GetRecord&metadataPrefix=etdms&identifier=oai%3Awww.ideals.illinois.edu%3A2142%2F129752