Evaluating effectiveness of irrigation technification using a calibrated optimization model in the primary irrigation district of Guanajuato, Mexico

Globally, the majority of water is used for irrigated agriculture. Guanajuato, Mexico, is a leading agricultural area upon which the Mexican economy and importers depend. However, growing pressure from urban and industrial development, as well as worsening droughts due to climate change, threaten agricultural production in this region. Improving agricultural water management is vital for reaching water security in Guanajuato. One of the primary recommendations is to implement irrigation efficiency measures, yet there is a lack of understanding about the efficacy of these measures for reducing overall water use and achieving water use sustainability while maintaining revenue for producers. This study uses an optimization model, calibrated to historical data, to assess how changes in water availability and changes in irrigation efficiency would affect water use, economic earnings, and crop choices of producers within the largest irrigation district (Irrigation District 11) in Guanajuato, Mexico. The results provide insight into which subdistricts would be most affected by drought, and for which subdistricts improved irrigation efficiency could produce the greatest gains. In addition, the optimized crop mix under different efficiency scenarios demonstrates where efforts for irrigation technification could be most beneficial and how the crop mix would change under these varied conditions. Under current policy conditions, irrigation technification alone is not enough to reduce water scarcity. Improved irrigation efficiency must be paired with sound water management policies to ensure that the desired results are achieved. If these policies are not implemented, it is possible that Guanajuato would fall victim to Jevons paradox (or the irrigation paradox) where farmers expand irrigated area or switch to more water intensive crops, actions which negate the intended purpose of improved efficiency. Without limits on the expansion of irrigated land, water use will not be reduced even with great improvements in irrigation efficiency.

Name thesis:degree_name

M.S.

Level thesis:degree_level

Thesis

Discipline thesis:degree_discipline

Civil Engineering

Grantor

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Year dc:date

2022

Author dc:creator

• Cherry, Charlotte Kayann

Contributors dc:contributor

• Cai, Ximing
• Sivapalan, Murugesu
• Brown, Casey

• irrigation technification
• irrigation efficiency
• agriculture
• positive mathematical programming
• optimization
• water security

Statement dc:rights

• Copyright 2022 Charlotte Cherry

Language dc:language

en, eng

Handle dc:identifier

https://hdl.handle.net/2142/115647

OAI record oai:identifier

https://www.ideals.illinois.edu/oai-pmh?verb=GetRecord&metadataPrefix=etdms&identifier=oai%3Awww.ideals.illinois.edu%3A2142%2F115647