Global heat balance model and probability distributions for atmospheric response

In this work, time series data for global average temperature and ocean heat content are used to calibrate the global heat balance model parameters including climate sensitivity, ocean thermal inertia, and a regional inhomogeneous radiative forcing multiplier. In this work, separate models are proposed to fit historical natural transients from the El Ni˜no Southern Oscillation (ENSO), volcanic aerosols, and solar variability respectively. Also, a probability distribution of λ, cth, and creg is found by removing the natural transients out from temperature observations. A new carbon balance model is used to account for departures from equilibrium between atmospheric CO2 and other reservoirs for anthropogenic carbon emissions. Assuming averages over natural transient effects having zero mean, extrapolation is done to get a probability distribution for future global average temperature.

Name thesis:degree_name

Ph.D.

Level thesis:degree_level

Dissertation

Discipline thesis:degree_discipline

Nuclear, Plasma, Radiolgc Engr

Grantor

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Year dc:date

2022

Author dc:creator

• Ding, Chenghao

Contributors dc:contributor

• Singer, Clifford
• Stubbins, James
• Di Fulvio, Angela
• Sriver, Ryan

• Global heat balance model
• Climate sensitivity
• Natural transients
• Probability distribution

Statement dc:rights

• Copyright 2022 Chenghao Ding

Language dc:language

en, eng

Handle dc:identifier

https://hdl.handle.net/2142/115387

OAI record oai:identifier

https://www.ideals.illinois.edu/oai-pmh?verb=GetRecord&metadataPrefix=etdms&identifier=oai%3Awww.ideals.illinois.edu%3A2142%2F115387