Hydrological responses to the synergistic changes in climate and land cover in the alpine pastoral region

Quantifying the hydrological responses to climate change and land use and land cover (LULC) change is imperative for sustainable river basin management. In this study, hydrological regimes of the upper Lancang River Basin under environmental changes are assessed using a semi-distributed hydrologic model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The non-parametric test is used to analyze the trend of hydro-meteorological variables based on the hydro-meteorological data time series analysis during the period of 1978 - 2014. Global Climate Models (or General Circulation Model, GCMs) under RCP 4.5 is used to assess the future climate (2021-2080); future hypothetical land-use change (2040) is predicted by Land Change Modeler (LCM). The modelling results are evaluated in four scenarios: scenario 1 with historical land use and climate, scenario 2 with the current land use and climate data from the past, scenario 3 with the current land use map and future climate, and scenario 4 with future land use and future climate. Consequently, sediment yield rises by 5.0 %, 17.9 %, and 25.9 % under scenarios 2, 3, and 4, respectively, as compared to scenario 1. The results indicate that the transition from pasture to cropland has been the topmost contributor to the increase in runoff and sediment yield, which is likely to continue to the future. Additionally, climate and land use change have a larger synergistic influence than their separate effects. This study quantitatively assesses the hydrological responses to environmental changes in an alpine pastoral area and provides supports for sustainable river basin management.

Name thesis:degree_name

M.S.

Level thesis:degree_level

Thesis

Discipline thesis:degree_discipline

Civil Engineering

Grantor

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Year dc:date

2022

Author dc:creator

• Xie, Mingyue

Contributors dc:contributor

• Cai, Ximing

• Climate change
• SWAT
• Land use
• Land cover
• NDVI
• Soil erosion
• Sediment yield

Statement dc:rights

• Copyright 2021 Mingyue Xie

Language dc:language

en

Handle dc:identifier

http://hdl.handle.net/2142/113217

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:www.ideals.illinois.edu:2142/113217