Rationality or irrationality of preferences? A quantitative test of intransitive decision heuristics

In this paper, I present a comprehensive analysis of two decision heuristics that permit intransitive preferences: the lexicographic semiorder model and the similarity model. I also compare these two intransitive decision heuristics with transitive linear order models and two simple transitive heuristics. For each decision theory, I use two types of probabilistic specifications: distance-based models (which assume deterministic preferences and probabilistic response processes), and mixture models (which assume probabilistic preferences and deterministic response processes). I test 26 such probabilistic models on datasets from three different experiments using both frequentist and Bayesian order-constrained statistical methods. The frequentist goodness-of-fit tests show that the distance-based models with modal choice and the mixture models for all of the decision heuristics explain the participants' data fairly well for all stimulus sets. The frequentist analysis generates little evidence against transitivity. Model selection using Bayes factors suggests extensive heterogeneity across participants and stimulus sets.

Name thesis:degree_name

M.S.

Level thesis:degree_level

Thesis

Discipline thesis:degree_discipline

Psychology

Grantor

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Year dc:date

2018

Author dc:creator

• Guo, Ying

Contributors dc:contributor

• Regenwetter, Michel
• Köhn, Hans-Friedrich

• Transitivity of preference, Probabilistic model, Order-Constrained inference, lexicographic semiorder, similarity model, linear order

Statement dc:rights

• Copyright 2018 Ying Guo

Language dc:language

en

Handle dc:identifier

http://hdl.handle.net/2142/101046

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:www.ideals.illinois.edu:2142/101046