Accounting frameworks, uncertainty, and compliance pathways in Iceland’s LULUCF sector : a System Dynamics approach

This thesis develops and applies a calibrated System Dynamics model of Iceland’s Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry (LULUCF) sector to quantify the methodological dependence of reported emissions, identify the parameters that dominate inventory uncertainty, and assess Iceland’s compliance pathway to its 2030 and 2040 climate targets. The model represents five interconnected modules (Wetland, Forest, Dryland, Other LULUCF, and Total LULUCF aggregator), calibrated to the National Inventory Report within ±10% across 1990–2024, and cross-validated against Iceland’s official 2030 WEM projection within 1.9%. An interactive interface exposes accounting framework presets and scenario controls for exploration. Four findings emerge. First, the same physical Icelandic LULUCF system at 2030 produces reported values spanning a range of 6,575 kt CO2e across four accounting framework configurations, from a net sink of −715 kt under early Kyoto-era reporting (pre-2014) to a net source of +5,860 kt under current Paris-era reporting. Whether Iceland reports as a net sink or a net source thus depends substantially on the accounting framework applied, not on the underlying physical state of the LULUCF sector. Second, a Pareto-inspired concentration is observed in Iceland’s LULUCF inventory: six vital parameters jointly account for over 80% of parameter uncertainty in the 2030 reported value, helping identify where inventory improvement efforts should be focused. Third, Iceland is on track for 2030 LULUCF compliance under the no-debit rule but is not on track for 2040 climate-neutrality: closing the 2040 gap requires a substantial operational scale-up, raised activity targets, and an annual budget of approximately 34 billion ISK, six times the current Fiscal Plan allocation. Fourth, the implied marginal abatement cost of domestic LULUCF mitigation (approximately €40 per tCO2e) is several times cheaper than alternative removal pathways, identifying domestic LULUCF expansion as Iceland’s most capital-efficient path to 2040 climate neutrality. Keywords: Land-Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF); System Dynamics; Carbon Neutrality; Iceland; climate policy; inventory uncertainty; carbon accounting frameworks; compliance pathways.

Author dc:creator

• Arna Ýr Emilsdóttir 1998-

Contributors dc:contributor

• Háskólinn í Reykjavík

• Rekstrarverkfræði
• Meistaraprófsritgerðir
• Landnýting
• Kolefnisjöfnun
• Engineering management
• Land use
• Carbon offsetting

Language dc:language.iso

en

Handle dc:identifier.uri

https://hdl.handle.net/1946/53869

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:skemman.is:1946/53869