THE GRAY ZONE SURGE: RUSSIA’S MARITIME SUBVERSION IN THE BALTIC SEA

This thesis examines the extent and nature of Russia's gray zone tactics in the maritime domain within the Baltic Sea Region (BSR). States utilize gray zone tactics when they act through kinetic and non-kinetic means that allow them to stay below the threshold of conventional war. To support economic interests to fund its war in Ukraine, Russia has expanded maritime gray zone activities since 2022. Its reliance on gray zone tactics in the maritime domain reflects the limits of its conventional naval capability and fleet modernization. Activities attributed to Russia’s shadow fleet include damage to undersea critical infrastructure, Automatic Identification System (AIS) spoofing, Global Positioning System (GPS) jamming, and sanction avoidance. While the scope and frequency of gray zone tactics attributed to Russia have increased in recent years, these approaches still only fulfill limited strategic objectives. Implications highlight the need for a comprehensive, proportionate North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) response that prioritizes vigilance, member state resilience, and rapid mobilization. Future agility will require anticipating the changing role of irregular statecraft across multiple domains.

Grantor dc:publisher

Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School

Year dc:date.issued

2025

Author dc:creator

• Durigan, Joseph P.

Advisor dc:contributor.advisor

• Matovski, Aleksandar

Statement dc:rights

• This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.

Handle dc:identifier.uri

https://hdl.handle.net/10945/74800

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:calhoun.nps.edu:10945/74800