MULTI-FACTOR ANALYSIS OF HYDRO-MORPHOLOGICAL DYNAMICS IN THE PAJARO RIVER LAGOON

This study presents a multi-factor analysis of hydro-morphological dynamics in the Pajaro River Lagoon over a 40-year period (1984-2024). Utilizing the Inlet Tracker program, images from Landsat and Sentinel-2 datasets were processed to determine inlet states and quantify channel migration patterns. Validation with in-situ measurements from Helms (2023) demonstrated strong agreement (r = 0.89-0.72).Comparative analysis between extreme water years revealed that river discharge serves as the primary driver of inlet dynamics. WY 2023 exhibited three times greater watershed precipitation and significantly higher average discharge compared to WY 2020, resulting in 300m versus 200m of total channel migration. Wave dynamics remained remarkably similar between years, confirming discharge as the dominant forcing mechanism. However, seasonal analysis revealed a "Goldilocks" effect where moderate discharge combined with significant wave forcing in fall, or minimal discharge allowing consistent wave action in summer, maximizes migration rates.Climate teleconnection analysis revealed weak correlations between watershed precipitation and ENSO (r = 0.11) and PDO (r = -0.04). The study demonstrates that local hydrological conditions are more influential than large-scale climate oscillations in controlling ICOLL morphology at interannual timescales. These findings provide valuable information for military planning or coastal management.

Department dc:contributor.department

Oceanography (OC)

Grantor dc:publisher

Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School

Year dc:date.issued

2025

Author dc:creator

• Ward, Joseph F.

Advisors dc:contributor.advisor

• Orescanin, Mara S.
• Velasquez Montoya, Liliana, United States Naval Academy

Statement dc:rights

• This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.

Handle dc:identifier.uri

https://hdl.handle.net/10945/74217

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:calhoun.nps.edu:10945/74217