{"id":{"repo_id":"nps","oai_identifier":"oai:calhoun.nps.edu:10945/74217"},"canonical_url":"https://search.dev.ndltd.org/etd/nps/oai:calhoun.nps.edu:10945/74217","repository":{"repo_id":"nps","name":"Naval Postgraduate School","base_url":"https://calhoun.nps.edu/server/oai/request"},"display":{"title":"MULTI-FACTOR ANALYSIS OF HYDRO-MORPHOLOGICAL DYNAMICS IN THE PAJARO RIVER LAGOON","abstract":"This study presents a multi-factor analysis of hydro-morphological dynamics in the Pajaro River Lagoon over a 40-year period (1984-2024). Utilizing the Inlet Tracker program, images from Landsat and Sentinel-2 datasets were processed to determine inlet states and quantify channel migration patterns. Validation with in-situ measurements from Helms (2023) demonstrated strong agreement (r = 0.89-0.72).Comparative analysis between extreme water years revealed that river discharge serves as the primary driver of inlet dynamics. WY 2023 exhibited three times greater watershed precipitation and significantly higher average discharge compared to WY 2020, resulting in 300m versus 200m of total channel migration. Wave dynamics remained remarkably similar between years, confirming discharge as the dominant forcing mechanism. However, seasonal analysis revealed a \"Goldilocks\" effect where moderate discharge combined with significant wave forcing in fall, or minimal discharge allowing consistent wave action in summer, maximizes migration rates.Climate teleconnection analysis revealed weak correlations between watershed precipitation and ENSO (r = 0.11) and PDO (r = -0.04). The study demonstrates that local hydrological conditions are more influential than large-scale climate oscillations in controlling ICOLL morphology at interannual timescales. These findings provide valuable information for military planning or coastal management.","abstract_html":"This study presents a multi-factor analysis of hydro-morphological dynamics in the Pajaro River Lagoon over a 40-year period (1984-2024). Utilizing the Inlet Tracker program, images from Landsat and Sentinel-2 datasets were processed to determine inlet states and quantify channel migration patterns. Validation with in-situ measurements from Helms (2023) demonstrated strong agreement (r = 0.89-0.72).Comparative analysis between extreme water years revealed that river discharge serves as the primary driver of inlet dynamics. WY 2023 exhibited three times greater watershed precipitation and significantly higher average discharge compared to WY 2020, resulting in 300m versus 200m of total channel migration. Wave dynamics remained remarkably similar between years, confirming discharge as the dominant forcing mechanism. However, seasonal analysis revealed a "Goldilocks" effect where moderate discharge combined with significant wave forcing in fall, or minimal discharge allowing consistent wave action in summer, maximizes migration rates.Climate teleconnection analysis revealed weak correlations between watershed precipitation and ENSO (r = 0.11) and PDO (r = -0.04). The study demonstrates that local hydrological conditions are more influential than large-scale climate oscillations in controlling ICOLL morphology at interannual timescales. These findings provide valuable information for military planning or coastal management.","abstract_has_math":false,"creators":["Ward, Joseph F."],"institution":"Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School","degree_name":null,"degree_level":null,"degree_discipline":null,"degree_department":"Oceanography (OC)","school":null,"contributors":[],"advisors":["Orescanin, Mara S.","Velasquez Montoya, Liliana, United States Naval Academy"],"committee_chairs":[],"committee_members":[],"year":2025,"date_issued":"2025-06","date_published":"2025-06","updated_at":"2026-07-27T20:24:23Z","subjects":[],"languages":[],"rights":["This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States."],"rights_urls":[],"identifier_entries":[]},"links":{"outbound_url":"https://hdl.handle.net/10945/74217","outbound_label":"Handle","outbound_source":"dc:identifier.uri"},"metadata_groups":[{"id":"people","label":"People","entries":[{"key":"dc:contributor.advisor","label":"Advisor","values":["Orescanin, Mara S.","Velasquez Montoya, Liliana, United States Naval Academy"]},{"key":"dc:contributor.department","label":"Department","values":["Oceanography (OC)"]},{"key":"dc:creator","label":"Author","values":["Ward, Joseph F."]}]},{"id":"academic_context","label":"Academic Context","entries":[{"key":"dc:date.accessioned","label":"Dc Date Accessioned","values":["2025-09-08T15:58:10Z"]},{"key":"dc:date.available","label":"Dc Date Available","values":["2025-09-08T15:58:10Z"]},{"key":"dc:date.issued","label":"Date","values":["2025-06"]},{"key":"dc:publisher","label":"Institution","values":["Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School"]},{"key":"dc:type","label":"Dc Type","values":["Thesis"]}]},{"id":"language_rights","label":"Language and Rights","entries":[{"key":"dc:rights","label":"Dc Rights","values":["This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States."]}]},{"id":"identifiers","label":"Identifiers","entries":[{"key":"dc:identifier.uri","label":"Identifier URI","values":["https://hdl.handle.net/10945/74217"]}]},{"id":"additional","label":"Additional Metadata","entries":[{"key":"dc:description.abstract","label":"Abstract","values":["This study presents a multi-factor analysis of hydro-morphological dynamics in the Pajaro River Lagoon over a 40-year period (1984-2024). Utilizing the Inlet Tracker program, images from Landsat and Sentinel-2 datasets were processed to determine inlet states and quantify channel migration patterns. Validation with in-situ measurements from Helms (2023) demonstrated strong agreement (r = 0.89-0.72).Comparative analysis between extreme water years revealed that river discharge serves as the primary driver of inlet dynamics. WY 2023 exhibited three times greater watershed precipitation and significantly higher average discharge compared to WY 2020, resulting in 300m versus 200m of total channel migration. Wave dynamics remained remarkably similar between years, confirming discharge as the dominant forcing mechanism. However, seasonal analysis revealed a \"Goldilocks\" effect where moderate discharge combined with significant wave forcing in fall, or minimal discharge allowing consistent wave action in summer, maximizes migration rates.Climate teleconnection analysis revealed weak correlations between watershed precipitation and ENSO (r = 0.11) and PDO (r = -0.04). The study demonstrates that local hydrological conditions are more influential than large-scale climate oscillations in controlling ICOLL morphology at interannual timescales. These findings provide valuable information for military planning or coastal management."]},{"key":"dc:title","label":"Title","values":["MULTI-FACTOR ANALYSIS OF HYDRO-MORPHOLOGICAL DYNAMICS IN THE PAJARO RIVER LAGOON"]}]}],"canonical_facts":{"dc:contributor.advisor":["Orescanin, Mara S.","Velasquez Montoya, Liliana, United States Naval Academy"],"dc:contributor.department":["Oceanography (OC)"],"dc:creator":["Ward, Joseph F."],"dc:date.accessioned":["2025-09-08T15:58:10Z"],"dc:date.available":["2025-09-08T15:58:10Z"],"dc:date.issued":["2025-06"],"dc:description.abstract":["This study presents a multi-factor analysis of hydro-morphological dynamics in the Pajaro River Lagoon over a 40-year period (1984-2024). Utilizing the Inlet Tracker program, images from Landsat and Sentinel-2 datasets were processed to determine inlet states and quantify channel migration patterns. Validation with in-situ measurements from Helms (2023) demonstrated strong agreement (r = 0.89-0.72).Comparative analysis between extreme water years revealed that river discharge serves as the primary driver of inlet dynamics. WY 2023 exhibited three times greater watershed precipitation and significantly higher average discharge compared to WY 2020, resulting in 300m versus 200m of total channel migration. Wave dynamics remained remarkably similar between years, confirming discharge as the dominant forcing mechanism. However, seasonal analysis revealed a \"Goldilocks\" effect where moderate discharge combined with significant wave forcing in fall, or minimal discharge allowing consistent wave action in summer, maximizes migration rates.Climate teleconnection analysis revealed weak correlations between watershed precipitation and ENSO (r = 0.11) and PDO (r = -0.04). The study demonstrates that local hydrological conditions are more influential than large-scale climate oscillations in controlling ICOLL morphology at interannual timescales. These findings provide valuable information for military planning or coastal management."],"dc:identifier.uri":["https://hdl.handle.net/10945/74217"],"dc:publisher":["Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School"],"dc:rights":["This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States."],"dc:title":["MULTI-FACTOR ANALYSIS OF HYDRO-MORPHOLOGICAL DYNAMICS IN THE PAJARO RIVER LAGOON"],"dc:type":["Thesis"]},"updated_at":"2026-07-27T20:24:23Z"}