A more comprehensive life cycle cost analysis of pavement materials alternatives

Life Cycle Cost Analysis (LCCA) is a commonly used tool in analyzing the economic viability of highway construction investments. The initial and life-cycle materials costs associated with highway construction involve a high level of uncertainty and therefore warrant extensive and dynamic cost analysis. These uncertainties derive from extensive materials usage costs. Despite the advantages of implementing a probabilistic approach to cost analysis, many state departments of transportation (DOTs) continue to employ a deterministic model, thereby misjudging, and often altogether neglecting the underlying uncertainty and risks. The goals of this paper are twofold: first, to validate forecasting as a viable method to predict future materials' prices, and second, to explore economies of scale as a potential driver of uncertainty. The paper will then apply these results to a case study methodology, looking at a comparative LCCA of two materials alternative, asphalt vs. concrete pavement designs for two states: Florida and Colorado. Endeavoring in this light, the author has characterized uncertainty in a way that will be comprehensible by practitioners. This research has successfully validated out-of-sample forecasting as a superior method of forecasting materials prices, characterized uncertainty related to project quantity, and delivered results using a relatable case study approach.

Department dc:contributor.department

Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Materials Science and Engineering.

Grantor dc:publisher

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Year dc:date.issued

2014

Author dc:creator

• Dunn, William Colby

Advisor dc:contributor.advisor

• Joel P. Clark.

• Materials Science and Engineering.

Statement dc:rights

• M.I.T. theses are protected by copyright. They may be viewed from this source for any purpose, but reproduction or distribution in any format is prohibited without written permission. See provided URL for inquiries about permission.

Licence dc:rights.uri

• http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/7582

Language dc:language.iso

eng

Handle dc:identifier.uri

http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/89965

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:dspace.mit.edu:1721.1/89965