{"id":{"repo_id":"mit","oai_identifier":"oai:dspace.mit.edu:1721.1/89965"},"canonical_url":"https://search.dev.ndltd.org/etd/mit/oai:dspace.mit.edu:1721.1/89965","repository":{"repo_id":"mit","name":"MIT","base_url":"https://dspace.mit.edu/oai/request"},"display":{"title":"A more comprehensive life cycle cost analysis of pavement materials alternatives","abstract":"Life Cycle Cost Analysis (LCCA) is a commonly used tool in analyzing the economic viability of highway construction investments. The initial and life-cycle materials costs associated with highway construction involve a high level of uncertainty and therefore warrant extensive and dynamic cost analysis. These uncertainties derive from extensive materials usage costs. Despite the advantages of implementing a probabilistic approach to cost analysis, many state departments of transportation (DOTs) continue to employ a deterministic model, thereby misjudging, and often altogether neglecting the underlying uncertainty and risks. The goals of this paper are twofold: first, to validate forecasting as a viable method to predict future materials' prices, and second, to explore economies of scale as a potential driver of uncertainty. The paper will then apply these results to a case study methodology, looking at a comparative LCCA of two materials alternative, asphalt vs. concrete pavement designs for two states: Florida and Colorado. Endeavoring in this light, the author has characterized uncertainty in a way that will be comprehensible by practitioners. This research has successfully validated out-of-sample forecasting as a superior method of forecasting materials prices, characterized uncertainty related to project quantity, and delivered results using a relatable case study approach.","abstract_html":"Life Cycle Cost Analysis (LCCA) is a commonly used tool in analyzing the economic viability of highway construction investments. The initial and life-cycle materials costs associated with highway construction involve a high level of uncertainty and therefore warrant extensive and dynamic cost analysis. These uncertainties derive from extensive materials usage costs. Despite the advantages of implementing a probabilistic approach to cost analysis, many state departments of transportation (DOTs) continue to employ a deterministic model, thereby misjudging, and often altogether neglecting the underlying uncertainty and risks. The goals of this paper are twofold: first, to validate forecasting as a viable method to predict future materials' prices, and second, to explore economies of scale as a potential driver of uncertainty. The paper will then apply these results to a case study methodology, looking at a comparative LCCA of two materials alternative, asphalt vs. concrete pavement designs for two states: Florida and Colorado. Endeavoring in this light, the author has characterized uncertainty in a way that will be comprehensible by practitioners. This research has successfully validated out-of-sample forecasting as a superior method of forecasting materials prices, characterized uncertainty related to project quantity, and delivered results using a relatable case study approach.","abstract_has_math":false,"creators":["Dunn, William Colby"],"institution":"Massachusetts Institute of Technology","degree_name":null,"degree_level":null,"degree_discipline":null,"degree_department":"Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Materials Science and Engineering.","school":null,"contributors":[],"advisors":["Joel P. Clark."],"committee_chairs":[],"committee_members":[],"year":2014,"date_issued":"2014","date_published":"2014","updated_at":"2026-07-22T22:20:58Z","subjects":["Materials Science and Engineering."],"languages":["eng"],"rights":["M.I.T. theses are protected by copyright. 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The initial and life-cycle materials costs associated with highway construction involve a high level of uncertainty and therefore warrant extensive and dynamic cost analysis. These uncertainties derive from extensive materials usage costs. Despite the advantages of implementing a probabilistic approach to cost analysis, many state departments of transportation (DOTs) continue to employ a deterministic model, thereby misjudging, and often altogether neglecting the underlying uncertainty and risks. The goals of this paper are twofold: first, to validate forecasting as a viable method to predict future materials' prices, and second, to explore economies of scale as a potential driver of uncertainty. The paper will then apply these results to a case study methodology, looking at a comparative LCCA of two materials alternative, asphalt vs. concrete pavement designs for two states: Florida and Colorado. Endeavoring in this light, the author has characterized uncertainty in a way that will be comprehensible by practitioners. This research has successfully validated out-of-sample forecasting as a superior method of forecasting materials prices, characterized uncertainty related to project quantity, and delivered results using a relatable case study approach."]},{"key":"dc:description.degree","label":"Dc Description Degree","values":["S.B."]},{"key":"dc:title","label":"Title","values":["A more comprehensive life cycle cost analysis of pavement materials alternatives"]}]}],"canonical_facts":{"dc:contributor.advisor":["Joel P. Clark."],"dc:contributor.department":["Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Materials Science and Engineering."],"dc:contributor.other":["Massachusetts Institute of Technology. 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Despite the advantages of implementing a probabilistic approach to cost analysis, many state departments of transportation (DOTs) continue to employ a deterministic model, thereby misjudging, and often altogether neglecting the underlying uncertainty and risks. The goals of this paper are twofold: first, to validate forecasting as a viable method to predict future materials' prices, and second, to explore economies of scale as a potential driver of uncertainty. The paper will then apply these results to a case study methodology, looking at a comparative LCCA of two materials alternative, asphalt vs. concrete pavement designs for two states: Florida and Colorado. Endeavoring in this light, the author has characterized uncertainty in a way that will be comprehensible by practitioners. 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