Demand forecasting for aircraft engine aftermarket

In 2006, Pratt and Whitney launched the Global Material Solutions business model aiming to supply spare parts to non-OEM engines with minimum 95% on-time delivery and fill-rate. Lacking essential technical knowledge of the target engines, predictability and associated confidence of the parts demands are very limited. This thesis focuses on exploring alternative and innovative approaches to providing more accurate demand forecasts based on limited information. Approaches including application of fundamental sampling theorems, random walk simulations based on Markov Chain simplification, and sensitivity analysis on incremental scrap rates were introduced. A software tool, based on the sensitivity analysis was introduced for all gas path parts. The methodology could potentially be applicable to industries other than Aerospace.

Department dc:contributor.department

Leaders for Manufacturing Program at MIT

Grantor dc:publisher

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Year dc:date.issued

2008

Author dc:creator

• Ho, Kien K. (Kine Kit)

Advisor dc:contributor.advisor

• David Simchi-Levi and Roy Welsch.

• Sloan School of Management.
• Civil and Environmental Engineering.
• Leaders for Manufacturing Program.

Statement dc:rights

• M.I.T. theses are protected by copyright. They may be viewed from this source for any purpose, but reproduction or distribution in any format is prohibited without written permission. See provided URL for inquiries about permission.

Licence dc:rights.uri

• http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/7582

Language dc:language.iso

eng

Handle dc:identifier.uri

http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/43833

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:dspace.mit.edu:1721.1/43833