Investigating expert bias toward statistical group feedback in the Delphi Technique

<p>In this thesis, effects of deception on convergence in the Delphi Technique have been investigated through an "e-Delphi" experiment where Prescribed Deceptive Feedback was given as the statistical group response. The subject of the e-Delphi experiment was to estimate areas of irregular shapes by a panel of participants who had more than sufficient expertise in the subject matter - in this case background in mathematics - to reach reasonable responses. It was demonstrated that most of the participants had a tendency to move toward the group response, although such a move was unwarranted. The primary conclusion from this exercise is that a well-defined qualification for expertise in the subject matter is not enough to become a good Delphi panelist. The effect of deception was strengthened by iteration, and for the most part self-ratings of confidence of responses increased over the rounds.</p>

Name thesis:degree_name

Master of Science

Level thesis:degree_level

thesis

Discipline thesis:degree_discipline

Interdisciplinary Graduate Studies

Department dc:contributor.department

Theses & dissertations (Interdisciplinary)

Year dc:date.issued

2005

Author dc:creator

• Tolon, Kaya

Language dc:language.iso

en

DOI

https://doi.org/10.31274/rtd-20201107-517

Identifier

archive/lib.dr.iastate.edu/rtd/20960/

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:dr.lib.iastate.edu:20.500.12876/98327