In this thesis, effects of deception on convergence in the Delphi Technique have been investigated through an \"e-Delphi\" experiment where Prescribed Deceptive Feedback was given as the statistical group response. The subject of the e-Delphi experiment was to estimate areas of irregular shapes by a panel of participants who had more than sufficient expertise in the subject matter - in this case background in mathematics - to reach reasonable responses. It was demonstrated that most of the participants had a tendency to move toward the group response, although such a move was unwarranted. The primary conclusion from this exercise is that a well-defined qualification for expertise in the subject matter is not enough to become a good Delphi panelist. The effect of deception was strengthened by iteration, and for the most part self-ratings of confidence of responses increased over the rounds.
","abstract_html":"<p>In this thesis, effects of deception on convergence in the Delphi Technique have been investigated through an "e-Delphi" experiment where Prescribed Deceptive Feedback was given as the statistical group response. The subject of the e-Delphi experiment was to estimate areas of irregular shapes by a panel of participants who had more than sufficient expertise in the subject matter - in this case background in mathematics - to reach reasonable responses. It was demonstrated that most of the participants had a tendency to move toward the group response, although such a move was unwarranted. The primary conclusion from this exercise is that a well-defined qualification for expertise in the subject matter is not enough to become a good Delphi panelist. The effect of deception was strengthened by iteration, and for the most part self-ratings of confidence of responses increased over the rounds.</p>","abstract_has_math":false,"creators":["Tolon, Kaya"],"institution":null,"degree_name":"Master of Science","degree_level":"thesis","degree_discipline":"Interdisciplinary Graduate Studies","degree_department":"Theses & dissertations (Interdisciplinary)","school":null,"contributors":[],"advisors":[],"committee_chairs":[],"committee_members":[],"year":2005,"date_issued":"2005-01-01","date_published":"2005-01-01","updated_at":"2026-07-24T02:37:49Z","subjects":[],"languages":["en"],"rights":[],"rights_urls":[],"identifier_entries":[{"key":"dc:identifier.doi","label":"DOI","values":["https://doi.org/10.31274/rtd-20201107-517"],"render_values":[{"text":"https://doi.org/10.31274/rtd-20201107-517","href":"https://doi.org/10.31274/rtd-20201107-517","code":true}]},{"key":"dc:identifier","label":"Identifier","values":["archive/lib.dr.iastate.edu/rtd/20960/"],"render_values":[{"text":"archive/lib.dr.iastate.edu/rtd/20960/","href":null,"code":true}]}]},"links":{"outbound_url":"https://dr.lib.iastate.edu/handle/20.500.12876/98327","outbound_label":"Repository record","outbound_source":"dc:identifier.uri"},"metadata_groups":[{"id":"people","label":"People","entries":[{"key":"dc:contributor.department","label":"Department","values":["Theses & dissertations (Interdisciplinary)"]},{"key":"dc:creator","label":"Author","values":["Tolon, Kaya"]}]},{"id":"academic_context","label":"Academic Context","entries":[{"key":"dc:date","label":"Dc Date","values":["2020-11-09T01:33:11.000"]},{"key":"dc:date.accessioned","label":"Dc Date Accessioned","values":["2021-02-26T09:01:12Z"]},{"key":"dc:date.available","label":"Dc Date Available","values":["2021-02-26T09:01:12Z"]},{"key":"dc:date.issued","label":"Date","values":["2005-01-01"]},{"key":"dc:type","label":"Dc Type","values":["thesis"]},{"key":"thesis:degree_discipline","label":"Discipline","values":["Interdisciplinary Graduate Studies"]},{"key":"thesis:degree_level","label":"Degree Level","values":["thesis"]},{"key":"thesis:degree_name","label":"Degree Name","values":["Master of Science"]}]},{"id":"language_rights","label":"Language and Rights","entries":[{"key":"dc:language.iso","label":"Language (ISO)","values":["en"]}]},{"id":"identifiers","label":"Identifiers","entries":[{"key":"dc:identifier","label":"Identifier","values":["archive/lib.dr.iastate.edu/rtd/20960/"]},{"key":"dc:identifier.doi","label":"DOI","values":["https://doi.org/10.31274/rtd-20201107-517"]},{"key":"dc:identifier.uri","label":"Identifier URI","values":["https://dr.lib.iastate.edu/handle/20.500.12876/98327"]}]},{"id":"additional","label":"Additional Metadata","entries":[{"key":"dc:description.abstract","label":"Abstract","values":["In this thesis, effects of deception on convergence in the Delphi Technique have been investigated through an \"e-Delphi\" experiment where Prescribed Deceptive Feedback was given as the statistical group response. The subject of the e-Delphi experiment was to estimate areas of irregular shapes by a panel of participants who had more than sufficient expertise in the subject matter - in this case background in mathematics - to reach reasonable responses. It was demonstrated that most of the participants had a tendency to move toward the group response, although such a move was unwarranted. The primary conclusion from this exercise is that a well-defined qualification for expertise in the subject matter is not enough to become a good Delphi panelist. The effect of deception was strengthened by iteration, and for the most part self-ratings of confidence of responses increased over the rounds.
"]},{"key":"dc:format.mimetype","label":"Dc Format Mimetype","values":["application/pdf"]},{"key":"dc:title","label":"Title","values":["Investigating expert bias toward statistical group feedback in the Delphi Technique"]}]}],"canonical_facts":{"dc:contributor.department":["Theses & dissertations (Interdisciplinary)"],"dc:creator":["Tolon, Kaya"],"dc:date":["2020-11-09T01:33:11.000"],"dc:date.accessioned":["2021-02-26T09:01:12Z"],"dc:date.available":["2021-02-26T09:01:12Z"],"dc:date.issued":["2005-01-01"],"dc:description.abstract":["In this thesis, effects of deception on convergence in the Delphi Technique have been investigated through an \"e-Delphi\" experiment where Prescribed Deceptive Feedback was given as the statistical group response. The subject of the e-Delphi experiment was to estimate areas of irregular shapes by a panel of participants who had more than sufficient expertise in the subject matter - in this case background in mathematics - to reach reasonable responses. It was demonstrated that most of the participants had a tendency to move toward the group response, although such a move was unwarranted. The primary conclusion from this exercise is that a well-defined qualification for expertise in the subject matter is not enough to become a good Delphi panelist. The effect of deception was strengthened by iteration, and for the most part self-ratings of confidence of responses increased over the rounds.
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