Uncertainties and risks in the adoption of new fuels in Finnish maritime logistics

Due to climate change, there is an urgent need for emission reductions and a transition away from fossil fuels across many areas of society. Consequently, the maritime logistics sector has also set emission reduction targets. A key part of the green transition in maritime logistics involves shifting to alternative fuels and hydrogen-based ammonia and methanol in particular seen as promising options. Despite the buzz around these promising options, the adoption of these fuels remains largely theoretical and involves complex uncertainties and risks. This master’s thesis employs qualitative content analysis to explore the dimensions of incertitude that stakeholders discuss in the adoption of alternative fuels within the Finnish maritime sector. The study draws on Andy Stirling’s four-field framework of incertitude (risk, uncertainty, ambiguity, and ignorance) from the field of science and technology studies. The findings indicate that all dimensions of uncertainty are present in the maritime fuel transition. Economic risks and market uncertainties, issues related to fuel availability and distribution, safety and environmental risks, regulatory uncertainty, and the ambiguity surrounding the fuel choice, sustainability and equity all act as barriers to progress. Additionally, unknown unknowns further complicate the transition. This study highlights the need to develop governance models that acknowledge the multifaceted nature of uncertainty and offers a critical perspective on the green transition in maritime logistics.

Grantor dc:publisher

Helsingin yliopisto

Year dc:date.issued

2025

Author dc:creator

• Linnekoski, Emilia

• epävarmuus
• riskit
• polttoaineet
• merenkulku
• riskienhallinta
• ammoniakki
• metanoli
• Suomi
• kestävyysmurros
• merilogistiikka

Statement dc:rights

• CC BY 4.0

Language dc:language.iso

eng

Handle dc:identifier.uri

http://hdl.handle.net/10138/600915

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:helda.helsinki.fi:10138/600915