{"id":{"repo_id":"helsinki","oai_identifier":"oai:helda.helsinki.fi:10138/600915"},"canonical_url":"https://search.dev.ndltd.org/etd/helsinki/oai:helda.helsinki.fi:10138/600915","repository":{"repo_id":"helsinki","name":"University of Helsinki","base_url":"https://helda.helsinki.fi/server/oai/request"},"display":{"title":"Uncertainties and risks in the adoption of new fuels in Finnish maritime logistics","abstract":"Due to climate change, there is an urgent need for emission reductions and a transition away from fossil fuels across many areas of society. Consequently, the maritime logistics sector has also set emission reduction targets. A key part of the green transition in maritime logistics involves shifting to alternative fuels and hydrogen-based ammonia and methanol in particular seen as promising options. Despite the buzz around these promising options, the adoption of these fuels remains largely theoretical and involves complex uncertainties and risks. This master’s thesis employs qualitative content analysis to explore the dimensions of incertitude that stakeholders discuss in the adoption of alternative fuels within the Finnish maritime sector. The study draws on Andy Stirling’s four-field framework of incertitude (risk, uncertainty, ambiguity, and ignorance) from the field of science and technology studies. The findings indicate that all dimensions of uncertainty are present in the maritime fuel transition. Economic risks and market uncertainties, issues related to fuel availability and distribution, safety and environmental risks, regulatory uncertainty, and the ambiguity surrounding the fuel choice, sustainability and equity all act as barriers to progress. Additionally, unknown unknowns further complicate the transition. This study highlights the need to develop governance models that acknowledge the multifaceted nature of uncertainty and offers a critical perspective on the green transition in maritime logistics.","abstract_html":"Due to climate change, there is an urgent need for emission reductions and a transition away from fossil fuels across many areas of society. Consequently, the maritime logistics sector has also set emission reduction targets. A key part of the green transition in maritime logistics involves shifting to alternative fuels and hydrogen-based ammonia and methanol in particular seen as promising options. Despite the buzz around these promising options, the adoption of these fuels remains largely theoretical and involves complex uncertainties and risks. This master’s thesis employs qualitative content analysis to explore the dimensions of incertitude that stakeholders discuss in the adoption of alternative fuels within the Finnish maritime sector. The study draws on Andy Stirling’s four-field framework of incertitude (risk, uncertainty, ambiguity, and ignorance) from the field of science and technology studies. The findings indicate that all dimensions of uncertainty are present in the maritime fuel transition. Economic risks and market uncertainties, issues related to fuel availability and distribution, safety and environmental risks, regulatory uncertainty, and the ambiguity surrounding the fuel choice, sustainability and equity all act as barriers to progress. Additionally, unknown unknowns further complicate the transition. This study highlights the need to develop governance models that acknowledge the multifaceted nature of uncertainty and offers a critical perspective on the green transition in maritime logistics.","abstract_has_math":false,"creators":["Linnekoski, Emilia"],"institution":"Helsingin yliopisto","degree_name":null,"degree_level":null,"degree_discipline":null,"degree_department":null,"school":null,"contributors":[],"advisors":[],"committee_chairs":[],"committee_members":[],"year":2025,"date_issued":"2025-09-11","date_published":"2025-09-11","updated_at":"2026-07-27T19:56:11Z","subjects":["epävarmuus","riskit","polttoaineet","merenkulku","riskienhallinta","ammoniakki","metanoli","Suomi","kestävyysmurros","merilogistiikka"],"languages":["eng"],"rights":["CC BY 4.0"],"rights_urls":[],"identifier_entries":[]},"links":{"outbound_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/10138/600915","outbound_label":"Handle","outbound_source":"dc:identifier.uri"},"metadata_groups":[{"id":"people","label":"People","entries":[{"key":"dc:creator","label":"Author","values":["Linnekoski, Emilia"]}]},{"id":"academic_context","label":"Academic Context","entries":[{"key":"dc:date.accessioned","label":"Dc Date Accessioned","values":["2025-09-11T05:02:26Z"]},{"key":"dc:date.available","label":"Dc Date Available","values":["2025-09-11T05:02:26Z"]},{"key":"dc:date.issued","label":"Date","values":["2025-09-11"]},{"key":"dc:publisher","label":"Institution","values":["Helsingin yliopisto","University of Helsinki","Helsingfors universitet"]}]},{"id":"subjects_keywords","label":"Subjects and Keywords","entries":[{"key":"dc:subject","label":"Dc Subject","values":["epävarmuus","riskit","polttoaineet","merenkulku","riskienhallinta","ammoniakki","metanoli","Suomi","kestävyysmurros","merilogistiikka"]}]},{"id":"language_rights","label":"Language and Rights","entries":[{"key":"dc:language.iso","label":"Language (ISO)","values":["eng"]},{"key":"dc:rights","label":"Dc Rights","values":["CC BY 4.0"]}]},{"id":"identifiers","label":"Identifiers","entries":[{"key":"dc:identifier.uri","label":"Identifier URI","values":["http://hdl.handle.net/10138/600915"]}]},{"id":"additional","label":"Additional Metadata","entries":[{"key":"dc:description.abstract","label":"Abstract","values":["Due to climate change, there is an urgent need for emission reductions and a transition away from fossil fuels across many areas of society. Consequently, the maritime logistics sector has also set emission reduction targets. A key part of the green transition in maritime logistics involves shifting to alternative fuels and hydrogen-based ammonia and methanol in particular seen as promising options. Despite the buzz around these promising options, the adoption of these fuels remains largely theoretical and involves complex uncertainties and risks. This master’s thesis employs qualitative content analysis to explore the dimensions of incertitude that stakeholders discuss in the adoption of alternative fuels within the Finnish maritime sector. The study draws on Andy Stirling’s four-field framework of incertitude (risk, uncertainty, ambiguity, and ignorance) from the field of science and technology studies. The findings indicate that all dimensions of uncertainty are present in the maritime fuel transition. Economic risks and market uncertainties, issues related to fuel availability and distribution, safety and environmental risks, regulatory uncertainty, and the ambiguity surrounding the fuel choice, sustainability and equity all act as barriers to progress. Additionally, unknown unknowns further complicate the transition. This study highlights the need to develop governance models that acknowledge the multifaceted nature of uncertainty and offers a critical perspective on the green transition in maritime logistics.","Ilmastonmuutoksen vuoksi monella yhteiskunnan sektorilla tarvitaan kiireellisiä päästövähennyksiä ja fossiilisista polttoaineista irtautumista. Näin ollen myös merilogistiikan sektori on asettanut päästövähennystavoitteita. Olennainen osa merilogistiikan kestävyysmurrosta on siirtyminen vaihtoehtoisiin polttoaineisiin ja erityisesti vetypohjaiset ammoniakki ja metanoli nähdään potentiaalisina vaihtoehtoina. Vaikka näille polttoaineille on asetettu paljon odotuksia, niiden käyttöönotto on kuitenkin vielä kovin teoreettisella tasolla ja siihen liittyy monimutkaisia epävarmuuksia ja riskejä. Tämä maisterintutkielma tarkastelee laadullisen sisällönanalyysin keinoin, millaisia epävarmuuden ja riskin muotoja alan suomalaisten sidosryhmien haastatteluissa ja työpajoissa ilmenee vaihtoehtoisten polttoaineiden käyttöönotossa. Teoreettisena viitekehyksenä käytetään Stirlingin nelikenttämallia epävarmuuden ulottuvuuksista (riski, epävarmuus, monitulkintaisuus ja tietämättömyys) tieteen ja teknologian tutkimuskentältä. Tuloksien perusteella merilogistiikan kestävyysmurroksessa ovat läsnä kaikki epävarmuuksien ulottuvuudet. Tulokset osoittavat, että taloudelliset riskit ja markkinaepävarmuus, polttoaineiden saatavuuden ja jakelun epävarmuus, turvallisuus- ja ympäristöriskit sekä sääntelyn epävarmuus ja polttoainevalinnan, kestävyyden, oikeudenmukaisuuden monitulkintaisuus muodostavat siirtymää hidastavat tekijät. Polttoaineiden käyttöönoton taustalla ovat myös tuntemattomat tekijät (unknown unknows). Tutkimus tuo esiin tarpeen kehittää hallintamalleja, jotka tunnistavat epävarmuuksien moninaisuuden ja tuo kriittisen näkökulman merilogistiikan vihreään siirtymään."]},{"key":"dc:title","label":"Title","values":["Uncertainties and risks in the adoption of new fuels in Finnish maritime logistics"]}]}],"canonical_facts":{"dc:creator":["Linnekoski, Emilia"],"dc:date.accessioned":["2025-09-11T05:02:26Z"],"dc:date.available":["2025-09-11T05:02:26Z"],"dc:date.issued":["2025-09-11"],"dc:description.abstract":["Due to climate change, there is an urgent need for emission reductions and a transition away from fossil fuels across many areas of society. Consequently, the maritime logistics sector has also set emission reduction targets. A key part of the green transition in maritime logistics involves shifting to alternative fuels and hydrogen-based ammonia and methanol in particular seen as promising options. Despite the buzz around these promising options, the adoption of these fuels remains largely theoretical and involves complex uncertainties and risks. This master’s thesis employs qualitative content analysis to explore the dimensions of incertitude that stakeholders discuss in the adoption of alternative fuels within the Finnish maritime sector. The study draws on Andy Stirling’s four-field framework of incertitude (risk, uncertainty, ambiguity, and ignorance) from the field of science and technology studies. The findings indicate that all dimensions of uncertainty are present in the maritime fuel transition. Economic risks and market uncertainties, issues related to fuel availability and distribution, safety and environmental risks, regulatory uncertainty, and the ambiguity surrounding the fuel choice, sustainability and equity all act as barriers to progress. Additionally, unknown unknowns further complicate the transition. This study highlights the need to develop governance models that acknowledge the multifaceted nature of uncertainty and offers a critical perspective on the green transition in maritime logistics.","Ilmastonmuutoksen vuoksi monella yhteiskunnan sektorilla tarvitaan kiireellisiä päästövähennyksiä ja fossiilisista polttoaineista irtautumista. Näin ollen myös merilogistiikan sektori on asettanut päästövähennystavoitteita. Olennainen osa merilogistiikan kestävyysmurrosta on siirtyminen vaihtoehtoisiin polttoaineisiin ja erityisesti vetypohjaiset ammoniakki ja metanoli nähdään potentiaalisina vaihtoehtoina. Vaikka näille polttoaineille on asetettu paljon odotuksia, niiden käyttöönotto on kuitenkin vielä kovin teoreettisella tasolla ja siihen liittyy monimutkaisia epävarmuuksia ja riskejä. Tämä maisterintutkielma tarkastelee laadullisen sisällönanalyysin keinoin, millaisia epävarmuuden ja riskin muotoja alan suomalaisten sidosryhmien haastatteluissa ja työpajoissa ilmenee vaihtoehtoisten polttoaineiden käyttöönotossa. Teoreettisena viitekehyksenä käytetään Stirlingin nelikenttämallia epävarmuuden ulottuvuuksista (riski, epävarmuus, monitulkintaisuus ja tietämättömyys) tieteen ja teknologian tutkimuskentältä. Tuloksien perusteella merilogistiikan kestävyysmurroksessa ovat läsnä kaikki epävarmuuksien ulottuvuudet. Tulokset osoittavat, että taloudelliset riskit ja markkinaepävarmuus, polttoaineiden saatavuuden ja jakelun epävarmuus, turvallisuus- ja ympäristöriskit sekä sääntelyn epävarmuus ja polttoainevalinnan, kestävyyden, oikeudenmukaisuuden monitulkintaisuus muodostavat siirtymää hidastavat tekijät. Polttoaineiden käyttöönoton taustalla ovat myös tuntemattomat tekijät (unknown unknows). Tutkimus tuo esiin tarpeen kehittää hallintamalleja, jotka tunnistavat epävarmuuksien moninaisuuden ja tuo kriittisen näkökulman merilogistiikan vihreään siirtymään."],"dc:identifier.uri":["http://hdl.handle.net/10138/600915"],"dc:language.iso":["eng"],"dc:publisher":["Helsingin yliopisto","University of Helsinki","Helsingfors universitet"],"dc:rights":["CC BY 4.0"],"dc:subject":["epävarmuus","riskit","polttoaineet","merenkulku","riskienhallinta","ammoniakki","metanoli","Suomi","kestävyysmurros","merilogistiikka"],"dc:title":["Uncertainties and risks in the adoption of new fuels in Finnish maritime logistics"]},"updated_at":"2026-07-27T19:56:11Z"}