Power system planning: an integrated techno-economic and portfolio approach

The electricity sector can be afflicted with different types of risk, in particular fuel price fluctuations can highly impact the price of electricity. The most common tools used in power planning apply a minimum cost approach to it in order to find an appropriate electricity matrix. These tend to ignore risk what could lead to miscalculations on the expected cost of electricity production. In this work we implemented two methods, economic dispatch and CVaR minimization, to address risk and formulate a suitable portfolio for the Brazilian electricity matrix. We found that to minimize the risk in case of extreme fuel price events, our model allocated the Brazilian electricity expansion primarily in wind and biomass energy. This largely coincides with other works that analyze this problem from other perspectives. Our results show that it is possible to minimize risk while at the same time following green energy initiatives that are needed in modern day electricity planning. Keywords: Portfolio Theory. Optimization. CVaR. Economic Dispatch. Electric Energy. Fossil Fuels. Electricity sector. Risk.

Grantor dc:publisher

Universidade Federal de Viçosa

Year dc:date.issued

2024

Author dc:creator

• Durigon, Angelo Lucio Freitas

Advisor dc:contributor.advisor

• Trotter, Ian Michael

• Energia elétrica - Planejamento
• Combustíveis - Preços
• Gerenciamento de portfólio
• Combustíveis fósseis
• Avaliação de riscos

Statement dc:rights

• Acesso Aberto

Language dc:language.iso

eng

DOI

https://doi.org/10.47328/ufvbbt.2024.464

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:locus.ufv.br:123456789/32763