{"id":{"repo_id":"brazil-ufv","oai_identifier":"oai:locus.ufv.br:123456789/32763"},"canonical_url":"https://search.dev.ndltd.org/etd/brazil-ufv/oai:locus.ufv.br:123456789/32763","repository":{"repo_id":"brazil-ufv","name":"Brazil UFV","base_url":"https://locus.ufv.br/server/oai/request"},"display":{"title":"Power system planning: an integrated techno-economic and portfolio approach","abstract":"The electricity sector can be afflicted with different types of risk, in particular fuel price fluctuations can highly impact the price of electricity. The most common tools used in power planning apply a minimum cost approach to it in order to find an appropriate electricity matrix. These tend to ignore risk what could lead to miscalculations on the expected cost of electricity production. In this work we implemented two methods, economic dispatch and CVaR minimization, to address risk and formulate a suitable portfolio for the Brazilian electricity matrix. We found that to minimize the risk in case of extreme fuel price events, our model allocated the Brazilian electricity expansion primarily in wind and biomass energy. This largely coincides with other works that analyze this problem from other perspectives. Our results show that it is possible to minimize risk while at the same time following green energy initiatives that are needed in modern day electricity planning. Keywords: Portfolio Theory. Optimization. CVaR. Economic Dispatch. Electric Energy. Fossil Fuels. Electricity sector. Risk.","abstract_html":"The electricity sector can be afflicted with different types of risk, in particular fuel price fluctuations can highly impact the price of electricity. The most common tools used in power planning apply a minimum cost approach to it in order to find an appropriate electricity matrix. These tend to ignore risk what could lead to miscalculations on the expected cost of electricity production. In this work we implemented two methods, economic dispatch and CVaR minimization, to address risk and formulate a suitable portfolio for the Brazilian electricity matrix. We found that to minimize the risk in case of extreme fuel price events, our model allocated the Brazilian electricity expansion primarily in wind and biomass energy. This largely coincides with other works that analyze this problem from other perspectives. Our results show that it is possible to minimize risk while at the same time following green energy initiatives that are needed in modern day electricity planning. Keywords: Portfolio Theory. Optimization. CVaR. Economic Dispatch. Electric Energy. Fossil Fuels. Electricity sector. Risk.","abstract_has_math":false,"creators":["Durigon, Angelo Lucio Freitas"],"institution":"Universidade Federal de Viçosa","degree_name":null,"degree_level":null,"degree_discipline":null,"degree_department":null,"school":null,"contributors":[],"advisors":["Trotter, Ian Michael"],"committee_chairs":[],"committee_members":[],"year":2024,"date_issued":"2024-04-24","date_published":"2024-04-24","updated_at":"2026-07-24T01:21:34Z","subjects":["Energia elétrica - Planejamento","Combustíveis - Preços","Gerenciamento de portfólio","Combustíveis fósseis","Avaliação de riscos"],"languages":["eng"],"rights":["Acesso Aberto"],"rights_urls":[],"identifier_entries":[{"key":"dc:identifier.doi","label":"DOI","values":["https://doi.org/10.47328/ufvbbt.2024.464"],"render_values":[{"text":"https://doi.org/10.47328/ufvbbt.2024.464","href":"https://doi.org/10.47328/ufvbbt.2024.464","code":true}]}]},"links":{"outbound_url":"https://locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/32763","outbound_label":"Repository record","outbound_source":"dc:identifier.uri"},"metadata_groups":[{"id":"people","label":"People","entries":[{"key":"dc:contributor.advisor","label":"Advisor","values":["Trotter, Ian Michael"]},{"key":"dc:creator","label":"Author","values":["Durigon, Angelo Lucio Freitas"]}]},{"id":"academic_context","label":"Academic Context","entries":[{"key":"dc:date.accessioned","label":"Dc Date Accessioned","values":["2024-09-02T18:27:43Z"]},{"key":"dc:date.issued","label":"Date","values":["2024-04-24"]},{"key":"dc:publisher","label":"Institution","values":["Universidade Federal de Viçosa"]},{"key":"dc:type","label":"Dc Type","values":["Dissertação"]}]},{"id":"subjects_keywords","label":"Subjects and Keywords","entries":[{"key":"dc:subject","label":"Dc Subject","values":["Energia elétrica - Planejamento","Combustíveis - Preços","Gerenciamento de portfólio","Combustíveis fósseis","Avaliação de riscos"]}]},{"id":"language_rights","label":"Language and Rights","entries":[{"key":"dc:language.iso","label":"Language (ISO)","values":["eng"]},{"key":"dc:rights","label":"Dc Rights","values":["Acesso Aberto"]}]},{"id":"identifiers","label":"Identifiers","entries":[{"key":"dc:identifier.doi","label":"DOI","values":["https://doi.org/10.47328/ufvbbt.2024.464"]},{"key":"dc:identifier.uri","label":"Identifier URI","values":["https://locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/32763"]}]},{"id":"additional","label":"Additional Metadata","entries":[{"key":"dc:description.abstract","label":"Abstract","values":["The electricity sector can be afflicted with different types of risk, in particular fuel price fluctuations can highly impact the price of electricity. The most common tools used in power planning apply a minimum cost approach to it in order to find an appropriate electricity matrix. These tend to ignore risk what could lead to miscalculations on the expected cost of electricity production. In this work we implemented two methods, economic dispatch and CVaR minimization, to address risk and formulate a suitable portfolio for the Brazilian electricity matrix. We found that to minimize the risk in case of extreme fuel price events, our model allocated the Brazilian electricity expansion primarily in wind and biomass energy. This largely coincides with other works that analyze this problem from other perspectives. Our results show that it is possible to minimize risk while at the same time following green energy initiatives that are needed in modern day electricity planning. Keywords: Portfolio Theory. Optimization. CVaR. Economic Dispatch. Electric Energy. Fossil Fuels. Electricity sector. Risk.","O setor de energia elétrica pode ser afetado por diferentes tipos de risco, em particular flutuações no preço dos combustíveis podem gerar um grande impacto no preço da eletricidade. As ferramentas mais comuns usadas no planejamento energético utilizam métodos de custo mínimo para encontrar uma matriz energética adequada. Estas, tendem a ignorar o risco o que pode levar a erros de cálculo do custo esperado da produção de energia elétrica. Nesse trabalho, nos implementamos dois métodos, despacho econômico e minimização do CVaR, para lidar com o risco e formular um portfolio adequado para a matriz energética brasileira. Nos descobrimos que para minimizar o risco em casos extremos de preços de combustíveis, o nosso modelo escolheu principalmente as energias eólica e de biomassa para a expansão da matriz energética brasileira. Isso coincide com outros trabalhos que analisaram esse problema por outras perspectivas. Nossos resultados mostram que é possível minimizar o risco ao mesmo tempo seguir incitavas de energia verde que são necessárias no planejamento energético moderno. Palavras-chave: Teoria do portifólio. Otimização. CVaR. Despacho Econômico. Energia Elétrica. Combustíveis Fosseis. Setor de energia elétrica. Risco."]},{"key":"dc:title","label":"Title","values":["Power system planning: an integrated techno-economic and portfolio approach","Planejamento de sistemas energéticos: uma abordagem integrada tecno-econômica e de teoria do portfólio"]}]}],"canonical_facts":{"dc:contributor.advisor":["Trotter, Ian Michael"],"dc:creator":["Durigon, Angelo Lucio Freitas"],"dc:date.accessioned":["2024-09-02T18:27:43Z"],"dc:date.issued":["2024-04-24"],"dc:description.abstract":["The electricity sector can be afflicted with different types of risk, in particular fuel price fluctuations can highly impact the price of electricity. The most common tools used in power planning apply a minimum cost approach to it in order to find an appropriate electricity matrix. These tend to ignore risk what could lead to miscalculations on the expected cost of electricity production. In this work we implemented two methods, economic dispatch and CVaR minimization, to address risk and formulate a suitable portfolio for the Brazilian electricity matrix. We found that to minimize the risk in case of extreme fuel price events, our model allocated the Brazilian electricity expansion primarily in wind and biomass energy. This largely coincides with other works that analyze this problem from other perspectives. Our results show that it is possible to minimize risk while at the same time following green energy initiatives that are needed in modern day electricity planning. Keywords: Portfolio Theory. Optimization. CVaR. Economic Dispatch. Electric Energy. Fossil Fuels. Electricity sector. Risk.","O setor de energia elétrica pode ser afetado por diferentes tipos de risco, em particular flutuações no preço dos combustíveis podem gerar um grande impacto no preço da eletricidade. As ferramentas mais comuns usadas no planejamento energético utilizam métodos de custo mínimo para encontrar uma matriz energética adequada. Estas, tendem a ignorar o risco o que pode levar a erros de cálculo do custo esperado da produção de energia elétrica. Nesse trabalho, nos implementamos dois métodos, despacho econômico e minimização do CVaR, para lidar com o risco e formular um portfolio adequado para a matriz energética brasileira. Nos descobrimos que para minimizar o risco em casos extremos de preços de combustíveis, o nosso modelo escolheu principalmente as energias eólica e de biomassa para a expansão da matriz energética brasileira. Isso coincide com outros trabalhos que analisaram esse problema por outras perspectivas. Nossos resultados mostram que é possível minimizar o risco ao mesmo tempo seguir incitavas de energia verde que são necessárias no planejamento energético moderno. Palavras-chave: Teoria do portifólio. Otimização. CVaR. Despacho Econômico. Energia Elétrica. Combustíveis Fosseis. Setor de energia elétrica. Risco."],"dc:identifier.doi":["https://doi.org/10.47328/ufvbbt.2024.464"],"dc:identifier.uri":["https://locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/32763"],"dc:language.iso":["eng"],"dc:publisher":["Universidade Federal de Viçosa"],"dc:rights":["Acesso Aberto"],"dc:subject":["Energia elétrica - Planejamento","Combustíveis - Preços","Gerenciamento de portfólio","Combustíveis fósseis","Avaliação de riscos"],"dc:title":["Power system planning: an integrated techno-economic and portfolio approach","Planejamento de sistemas energéticos: uma abordagem integrada tecno-econômica e de teoria do portfólio"],"dc:type":["Dissertação"]},"updated_at":"2026-07-24T01:21:34Z"}