A Comparison of the Prediction Models for the Impact of Heat Wave on Total Mortality and Incidence of Heat-related Illness in the Republic of Korea

Heatwave surveillance systems of patients with heat-related illness generated by the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have been reported since 2010. So, there are few studies about relationship between incidence of heat-related illness and temperature during heat wave in Korea. This study is to select the most appropriate prediction model for the impact of heat wave on total mortality and incidence of heat-related illness in Korea. Using piecewise regression model, the study was selected the best goodness of fit with the model which were calculated by adjusted R2 between mortality during the summer (1 June to 31 August) from 2001 to 2011 and incidence of heat-related illness during the summer (1June to 31 August) in 2011 and 2012. Then, threshold temperature showing the minimum Akaike's information criterion and the relative risk (RR) above the threshold temperature were calculated. The adjusted R2 on the model of incidence of the heat-related illness with daily maximum temperature (0.836) was higher than that on the model of the mortality with daily maximum temperature (0.058). The threshold temperature on the model of the incidence of the heat-related illness with daily maximum temperature(30.5℃) was lower than that on the model of the mortality with daily maximum temperature(32℃). Meanwhile, the threshold temperatures on the model of the incidence of heat-related illness with daily maximum temperature in Seoul, Gyeonggi-do and Chungcheong-do were higher than that of the model of the mortality with daily maximum temperature, having the explanation power of 0.841, 0.724, and 0.721, respectively. The threshold temperature of women (31.9℃) on the model of the heat-related illness with daily maximum temperature which was the best goodness of fit by sex was greater than that of men (30℃). The RR was the highest in the ≥65 age group on the model of the heat-related illness with daily maximum temperature which was the best goodness of fit by age group (1.803 [95% CI, 1.723-1.887]). The model built by the daily maximum temperature and heat-related illness was the most regression model. There were differences in the threshold temperature and relative risk between the models of mortality and incidence of heat-related illness with the daily maximum temperature by regions, genders, and age groups. Average daily maximum temperature was 5 percent higher than heat wave warning issued 33 ℃. And there was no temperature threshold of research model is higher than heat wave warning issued 35℃. Therefore it may be needed to establish relative criteria on heat wave warning system in Korea.

Author dc:creator

• 김, 현영

Contributors dc:contributor

• 장, 재연
• 대학원 의생명과학과
• 201024670

• 폭염
• 사망자
• 온열질환자
• 역치기온
• 구간적 회귀모형
• Heat wave
• Mortality
• Heat-related illness
• Threshold temperature
• Piecewise regression model

Language dc:language

ko

Identifier

http://dcoll.ajou.ac.kr:9080/dcollection/jsp/common/DcLoOrgPer.jsp?sItemId=000000014781
000000014781

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:repository.ajou.ac.kr:201003/8599