Long-term effects of satellite megaconstellations on the debris environment in low earth orbit

This thesis examines the potential long-term impacts of satellite megaconstellations in Low Earth Orbit, with a focus on how post-mission disposal rates for megaconstellations will affect their contributions to orbital debris over the next 150 years. A new, medium-fidelity simulation for modeling orbital debris is developed and described, and several test cases are run with SpaceX’s Starlink megaconstellation and varying success rates for post-mission disposal. In cases where Starlink’s post-mission disposal rate is insufficient to prevent debris growth, varying amounts of active debris removal are explored as a potential mitigation measure. It is shown that LEO debris levels will grow at almost double their baseline rate if Starlink meets only the minimum regulatory requirements for post-mission disposal, and even relatively high rates of active debris removal cannot always return the LEO environment to its non-megaconstellation baseline. Still, the potential exists to minimize the debris-generating effects of large megaconstellations like Starlink if post-mission disposal rates of 95% or better can be achieved.

Name thesis:degree_name

M.S.

Level thesis:degree_level

Thesis

Discipline thesis:degree_discipline

Aerospace Engineering

Grantor

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Year dc:date

2020

Author dc:creator

• Hardy, Brian Patrick

Contributors dc:contributor

• Ho, Koki

• space debris
• megaconstellations
• active debris removal

Statement dc:rights

• Copyright 2020 Brian Hardy

Language dc:language

en

Handle dc:identifier

http://hdl.handle.net/2142/108004

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:www.ideals.illinois.edu:2142/108004