Long-term effects of satellite megaconstellations on the debris environment in low earth orbit
type: CreativeWork
description: This thesis examines the potential long-term impacts of satellite megaconstellations in Low Earth Orbit, with a focus on how post-mission disposal rates for megaconstellations will affect their contributions to orbital debris over the next 150 years. A new, medium-fidelity simulation for modeling orbital debris is developed and described, and several test cases are run with SpaceX’s Starlink megaconstellation and varying success rates for post-mission disposal. In cases where Starlink’s post-mission disposal rate is insufficient to prevent debris growth, varying amounts of active debris removal are explored as a potential mitigation measure. It is shown that LEO debris levels will grow at almost double their baseline rate if Starlink meets only the minimum regulatory requirements for post-mission disposal, and even relatively high rates of active debris removal cannot always return the LEO environment to its non-megaconstellation baseline. Still, the potential exists to minimize the debris-generating effects of large megaconstellations like Starlink if post-mission disposal rates of 95% or better can be achieved.
abstract: This thesis examines the potential long-term impacts of satellite megaconstellations in Low Earth Orbit, with a focus on how post-mission disposal rates for megaconstellations will affect their contributions to orbital debris over the next 150 years. A new, medium-fidelity simulation for modeling orbital debris is developed and described, and several test cases are run with SpaceX’s Starlink megaconstellation and varying success rates for post-mission disposal. In cases where Starlink’s post-mission disposal rate is insufficient to prevent debris growth, varying amounts of active debris removal are explored as a potential mitigation measure. It is shown that LEO debris levels will grow at almost double their baseline rate if Starlink meets only the minimum regulatory requirements for post-mission disposal, and even relatively high rates of active debris removal cannot always return the LEO environment to its non-megaconstellation baseline. Still, the potential exists to minimize the debris-generating effects of large megaconstellations like Starlink if post-mission disposal rates of 95% or better can be achieved.
author: Hardy, Brian Patrick
language: en
keywords: space debris, megaconstellations, active debris removal
date published: 2020-08-26T21:54:56Z
date modified: 2026-07-22T22:24:47Z
provider: University of Illinois - Urbana-Champaign
publisher: Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations
type: WebPage
source organization: University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

PropertyValue
property ID: Handle
value: http://hdl.handle.net/2142/108004