Problems in Longterm Forecasting and Planning: with reference to transport and energy

In this thesis I have set out my experiences of forecasting in the long term. (I have taken long term to be anything beyond 5 to 10 years). I have set forecasting in its context as a component of the planning process and have related the problems of forecasting to the ensuing problems in planning. The main areas I have covered are Transport and Energy, in a UK context.However I have touched on other fields and I expect the conclusions I have drawn about forecasting and planning to apply to many fields. The thesis is in two parts plus appendices. In the first part I report three substantial pieces of research. They illustrate many of the problems associated with forecasting, and I examine possible solutions to these problems. In the second part I describe how forecasts are made and some of the problems inherent in forecasting. I then examine why forecasts appear to be necessary in the planning/ policy making process. I conclude with the implications that my views on forecasting.

Name dc:type.qualificationname

phd

Level dc:type.qualificationlevel

doctoral

Grantor dc:publisher.institution

The Open University

Year dc:date.issued

1981

Author dc:creator

• Baker, Timothy Michael

Language dc:language

en