{"id":{"repo_id":"the-open-u","oai_identifier":"oai:oro.open.ac.uk:56849"},"canonical_url":"https://search.dev.ndltd.org/etd/the-open-u/oai:oro.open.ac.uk:56849","repository":{"repo_id":"the-open-u","name":"The Open University","base_url":"https://oro.open.ac.uk/cgi/oai2"},"display":{"title":"Problems in Longterm Forecasting and Planning: with reference to transport and energy","abstract":"In this thesis I have set out my experiences of forecasting in the long term. (I have taken long term to be anything beyond 5 to 10 years). I have set forecasting in its context as a component of the planning process and have related the problems of forecasting to the ensuing problems in planning. The main areas I have covered are Transport and Energy, in a UK context.However I have touched on other fields and I expect the conclusions I have drawn about forecasting and planning to apply to many fields. The thesis is in two parts plus appendices. In the first part I report three substantial pieces of research. They illustrate many of the problems associated with forecasting, and I examine possible solutions to these problems. In the second part I describe how forecasts are made and some of the problems inherent in forecasting. I then examine why forecasts appear to be necessary in the planning/ policy making process. I conclude with the implications that my views on forecasting.","abstract_html":"In this thesis I have set out my experiences of forecasting in the long term. (I have taken long term to be anything beyond 5 to 10 years). I have set forecasting in its context as a component of the planning process and have related the problems of forecasting to the ensuing problems in planning. The main areas I have covered are Transport and Energy, in a UK context.However I have touched on other fields and I expect the conclusions I have drawn about forecasting and planning to apply to many fields. The thesis is in two parts plus appendices. In the first part I report three substantial pieces of research. They illustrate many of the problems associated with forecasting, and I examine possible solutions to these problems. In the second part I describe how forecasts are made and some of the problems inherent in forecasting. I then examine why forecasts appear to be necessary in the planning/ policy making process. I conclude with the implications that my views on forecasting.","abstract_has_math":false,"creators":["Baker, Timothy Michael"],"institution":"The Open University","degree_name":"phd","degree_level":"doctoral","degree_discipline":null,"degree_department":null,"school":null,"contributors":[],"advisors":[],"committee_chairs":[],"committee_members":[],"year":1981,"date_issued":"1981","date_published":"1981","updated_at":"2026-07-24T05:02:56Z","subjects":[],"languages":["en"],"rights":[],"rights_urls":[],"identifier_entries":[]},"links":{"outbound_url":null,"outbound_label":null,"outbound_source":null},"metadata_groups":[{"id":"people","label":"People","entries":[{"key":"dc:creator","label":"Author","values":["Baker, Timothy Michael"]}]},{"id":"academic_context","label":"Academic Context","entries":[{"key":"dc:date","label":"Dc Date","values":["1981"]},{"key":"dc:date.issued","label":"Date","values":["1981"]},{"key":"dc:publisher.institution","label":"Dc Publisher Institution","values":["The Open University"]},{"key":"dc:relation.isreferencedby","label":"Dc Relation Isreferencedby","values":["https://oro.open.ac.uk/56849/"]},{"key":"dc:type","label":"Dc Type","values":["Thesis"]},{"key":"dc:type.qualificationlevel","label":"Dc Type Qualificationlevel","values":["doctoral"]},{"key":"dc:type.qualificationname","label":"Dc Type Qualificationname","values":["phd"]}]},{"id":"language_rights","label":"Language and Rights","entries":[{"key":"dc:language","label":"Dc Language","values":["en"]}]},{"id":"identifiers","label":"Identifiers","entries":[{"key":"dc:identifier.uri","label":"Identifier URI","values":["https://oro.open.ac.uk/56849/1/237710.pdf"]}]},{"id":"additional","label":"Additional Metadata","entries":[{"key":"dc:description.abstract","label":"Abstract","values":["In this thesis I have set out my experiences of forecasting in the long term. (I have taken long term to be anything beyond 5 to 10 years). I have set forecasting in its context as a component of the planning process and have related the problems of forecasting to the ensuing problems in planning. The main areas I have covered are Transport and Energy, in a UK context.However I have touched on other fields and I expect the conclusions I have drawn about forecasting and planning to apply to many fields. The thesis is in two parts plus appendices. In the first part I report three substantial pieces of research. They illustrate many of the problems associated with forecasting, and I examine possible solutions to these problems. In the second part I describe how forecasts are made and some of the problems inherent in forecasting. I then examine why forecasts appear to be necessary in the planning/ policy making process. I conclude with the implications that my views on forecasting."]},{"key":"dc:format","label":"Dc Format","values":["application/pdf"]},{"key":"dc:title","label":"Title","values":["Problems in Longterm Forecasting and Planning: with reference to transport and energy"]}]}],"canonical_facts":{"dc:creator":["Baker, Timothy Michael"],"dc:date":["1981"],"dc:date.issued":["1981"],"dc:description.abstract":["In this thesis I have set out my experiences of forecasting in the long term. (I have taken long term to be anything beyond 5 to 10 years). I have set forecasting in its context as a component of the planning process and have related the problems of forecasting to the ensuing problems in planning. The main areas I have covered are Transport and Energy, in a UK context.However I have touched on other fields and I expect the conclusions I have drawn about forecasting and planning to apply to many fields. The thesis is in two parts plus appendices. In the first part I report three substantial pieces of research. They illustrate many of the problems associated with forecasting, and I examine possible solutions to these problems. In the second part I describe how forecasts are made and some of the problems inherent in forecasting. I then examine why forecasts appear to be necessary in the planning/ policy making process. I conclude with the implications that my views on forecasting."],"dc:format":["application/pdf"],"dc:identifier.uri":["https://oro.open.ac.uk/56849/1/237710.pdf"],"dc:language":["en"],"dc:publisher.institution":["The Open University"],"dc:relation.isreferencedby":["https://oro.open.ac.uk/56849/"],"dc:title":["Problems in Longterm Forecasting and Planning: with reference to transport and energy"],"dc:type":["Thesis"],"dc:type.qualificationlevel":["doctoral"],"dc:type.qualificationname":["phd"]},"updated_at":"2026-07-24T05:02:56Z"}