Relationship of Grain Stocks and Farmer Marketings

<p>This research explores the relationship between quarterly grain stocks and monthly grain marketings. Reviewing when, how, and why stocks move from on-farm and off-farm inventories, an interpretation of quarterly commodity disappearance and crop marketings is formed. An explanatory model is first developed for farmer marketings, where price expectations are used to assess market signals to change ownership of crops. The model is applied to South Dakota corn, soybeans, and wheat from 1985 through 2015. The subsequent analysis contributes to a model that explains quarterly changes in stocks in terms of supply levels and the expected effect from marketings on disappearance. An expected basis function is developed as an explanatory variable, but market indicators are dominated by strong seasonal patterns in both disappearance and marketings.</p> <p>A disparity between on-farm and off-farm disappearance is identified, the latter being intractable to quantify. A disparity between marketings and on-farm disappearance suggests a large portion of off-farm stocks are owned by farmers, potentially creating storage constraints at off-farm locations.</p>

Name thesis:degree_name

Master of Science (MS)

Level thesis:degree_level

Thesis - Open Access

Discipline thesis:degree_discipline

Economics

Year dc:date.available

2016

Author dc:creator

• Holmquist, Tyler

Contributors dc:contributor

• Matthew Diersen

• basis
• carry
• farmer marketings
• grain stocks
• storage
• Agricultural and Resource Economics
• Agricultural Economics
• Economics

Licence

• http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/

Language dc:language

en

Repository record dc:identifier

https://openprairie.sdstate.edu/etd/1045

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:openprairie.sdstate.edu:etd-2042