This research explores the relationship between quarterly grain stocks and monthly grain marketings. Reviewing when, how, and why stocks move from on-farm and off-farm inventories, an interpretation of quarterly commodity disappearance and crop marketings is formed. An explanatory model is first developed for farmer marketings, where price expectations are used to assess market signals to change ownership of crops. The model is applied to South Dakota corn, soybeans, and wheat from 1985 through 2015. The subsequent analysis contributes to a model that explains quarterly changes in stocks in terms of supply levels and the expected effect from marketings on disappearance. An expected basis function is developed as an explanatory variable, but market indicators are dominated by strong seasonal patterns in both disappearance and marketings.
A disparity between on-farm and off-farm disappearance is identified, the latter being intractable to quantify. A disparity between marketings and on-farm disappearance suggests a large portion of off-farm stocks are owned by farmers, potentially creating storage constraints at off-farm locations.
","abstract_html":"<p>This research explores the relationship between quarterly grain stocks and monthly grain marketings. Reviewing when, how, and why stocks move from on-farm and off-farm inventories, an interpretation of quarterly commodity disappearance and crop marketings is formed. An explanatory model is first developed for farmer marketings, where price expectations are used to assess market signals to change ownership of crops. The model is applied to South Dakota corn, soybeans, and wheat from 1985 through 2015. The subsequent analysis contributes to a model that explains quarterly changes in stocks in terms of supply levels and the expected effect from marketings on disappearance. An expected basis function is developed as an explanatory variable, but market indicators are dominated by strong seasonal patterns in both disappearance and marketings.</p> <p>A disparity between on-farm and off-farm disappearance is identified, the latter being intractable to quantify. A disparity between marketings and on-farm disappearance suggests a large portion of off-farm stocks are owned by farmers, potentially creating storage constraints at off-farm locations.</p>","abstract_has_math":false,"creators":["Holmquist, Tyler"],"institution":null,"degree_name":"Master of Science (MS)","degree_level":"Thesis - Open Access","degree_discipline":"Economics","degree_department":null,"school":null,"contributors":["Matthew Diersen"],"advisors":[],"committee_chairs":[],"committee_members":[],"year":2016,"date_issued":"2016-01-01T08:00:00Z","date_published":"2016-01-01T08:00:00Z","updated_at":"2026-07-24T04:28:30Z","subjects":["basis","carry","farmer marketings","grain stocks","storage","Agricultural and Resource Economics","Agricultural Economics","Economics"],"languages":["en"],"rights":[],"rights_urls":["http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/"],"identifier_entries":[]},"links":{"outbound_url":"https://openprairie.sdstate.edu/etd/1045","outbound_label":"Repository record","outbound_source":"dc:identifier"},"metadata_groups":[{"id":"people","label":"People","entries":[{"key":"dc:contributor","label":"Contributor","values":["Matthew Diersen"]},{"key":"dc:creator","label":"Author","values":["Holmquist, Tyler"]}]},{"id":"academic_context","label":"Academic Context","entries":[{"key":"dc:date.available","label":"Dc Date Available","values":["2016-08-17T07:00:00Z"]},{"key":"thesis:degree_discipline","label":"Discipline","values":["Economics"]},{"key":"thesis:degree_level","label":"Degree Level","values":["Thesis - Open Access"]},{"key":"thesis:degree_name","label":"Degree Name","values":["Master of Science (MS)"]}]},{"id":"subjects_keywords","label":"Subjects and Keywords","entries":[{"key":"dc:subject","label":"Dc Subject","values":["basis","carry","farmer marketings","grain stocks","storage","Agricultural and Resource Economics","Agricultural Economics","Economics"]}]},{"id":"language_rights","label":"Language and Rights","entries":[{"key":"dc:language","label":"Dc Language","values":["en"]},{"key":"dc:rights","label":"Dc Rights","values":["http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/"]}]},{"id":"identifiers","label":"Identifiers","entries":[{"key":"dc:identifier","label":"Identifier","values":["https://openprairie.sdstate.edu/etd/1045"]}]},{"id":"additional","label":"Additional Metadata","entries":[{"key":"dc:description.abstract","label":"Abstract","values":["This research explores the relationship between quarterly grain stocks and monthly grain marketings. Reviewing when, how, and why stocks move from on-farm and off-farm inventories, an interpretation of quarterly commodity disappearance and crop marketings is formed. An explanatory model is first developed for farmer marketings, where price expectations are used to assess market signals to change ownership of crops. The model is applied to South Dakota corn, soybeans, and wheat from 1985 through 2015. The subsequent analysis contributes to a model that explains quarterly changes in stocks in terms of supply levels and the expected effect from marketings on disappearance. An expected basis function is developed as an explanatory variable, but market indicators are dominated by strong seasonal patterns in both disappearance and marketings.
A disparity between on-farm and off-farm disappearance is identified, the latter being intractable to quantify. A disparity between marketings and on-farm disappearance suggests a large portion of off-farm stocks are owned by farmers, potentially creating storage constraints at off-farm locations.
"]},{"key":"dc:title","label":"Title","values":["Relationship of Grain Stocks and Farmer Marketings"]}]}],"canonical_facts":{"dc:contributor":["Matthew Diersen"],"dc:creator":["Holmquist, Tyler"],"dc:date.available":["2016-08-17T07:00:00Z"],"dc:description.abstract":["This research explores the relationship between quarterly grain stocks and monthly grain marketings. Reviewing when, how, and why stocks move from on-farm and off-farm inventories, an interpretation of quarterly commodity disappearance and crop marketings is formed. An explanatory model is first developed for farmer marketings, where price expectations are used to assess market signals to change ownership of crops. The model is applied to South Dakota corn, soybeans, and wheat from 1985 through 2015. The subsequent analysis contributes to a model that explains quarterly changes in stocks in terms of supply levels and the expected effect from marketings on disappearance. An expected basis function is developed as an explanatory variable, but market indicators are dominated by strong seasonal patterns in both disappearance and marketings.
A disparity between on-farm and off-farm disappearance is identified, the latter being intractable to quantify. A disparity between marketings and on-farm disappearance suggests a large portion of off-farm stocks are owned by farmers, potentially creating storage constraints at off-farm locations.
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