Anticipating futures during times of change : Empirical consumer research in corporate foresight

This article-based doctoral dissertation examines consumers’ futures thinking and the role of empirical consumer research in corporate foresight. The research was conducted during a period characterised by multiple intertwined crises. Previous research has scarcely addressed the link between consumer research and corporate foresight, and the integration of consumers into foresight processes appears to be rare in the literature. However, companies conducting foresight need to understand consumption futures and engage consumers in foresight. In this dissertation, the dynamics and interpretations of consumers’ futures thinking are addressed. In addition, the applied consumer research methodologies are linked to all parts of a foresight process. The dissertation comprises five original articles. Article I investigates consumers’ futures thinking at the onset of the global health crisis COVID-19. Article II examines future visions of everyday life in a global metropolis by involving consumers with a lead user profile. Article III engages early adopter consumers in last-mile logistics innovation to evaluate and develop future-oriented service concepts. The use of consumer foresight information is examined in an applied corporate foresight context, as Article II was conducted in collaboration with a leading globally operating company and Article III with a locally prominent SME firm. Article IV examines the use of foresight information in large companies with intermediate foresight maturity, identifying four organising archetypes. Article V conducts a qualitative content analysis of future personas created within expert-driven scenario processes, uncovering the limitations of future personas created without consumer and citizen engagement. The study is multidisciplinary, and theoretical approaches from futures studies, corporate foresight, consumer research, and sociology of futures are used to interpret the data. The multi-method approach to data collection derives from consumer research, utilising several methods to collect mainly qualitative but also quantitative data. The study uses interviews, online diaries, chatrooms, a visioning workshop, and a survey to collect data. The participatory approach involves various consumer profiles, such as lead users and early adopters. As the research is partially conducted in collaboration with companies, strategic management and knowledge management perspectives are employed to understand the role of future-oriented consumer insights within organisations and their foresight systems. The consumers studied showed resilience, adaptability, and the capability to look forward in volatile conditions. The changing conditions challenged consumption patterns and lifestyles but also influenced post-crisis horizons. Consumer futures appeared as dynamic spaces of possibilities that present actions could shape, and personal agency was preserved in uncertain and unstable circumstances. Consumers’ future imaginaries included both continuity and discontinuity in relation to the present situation. Consumers’ future expectations did not always align with the companies’ hypotheses. The consumers were capable of imagining a broad range of future possibilities, which were influenced by the concerns, issues, and trends of the time. The interplay between future imaginaries and present actions created anticipation in consumption. Social structures, technologies, and materialities influenced the anticipation. This future orientation in consumption forms a theoretical common ground for consumer research and corporate foresight, and provides applicable insights for corporate foresight practice. Companies' strategic leadership can utilise future-oriented consumption insights at all stages of a generic foresight process. Consumer foresight can be a unique resource, allowing differentiation in competition. As consumers’ roles during different parts of the process vary, choosing an appropriate consumer engagement method for each phase becomes crucial. There is no need to exclude any group of consumers from future-related reflections. This study demonstrates that consumer involvement orientations can be interpretative, visionary, co-creative, and validating. The future orientation in consumption must be recognised in the data to formulate consumer research findings in the form of foresight terminology. This integrative approach can be called participatory consumer foresight.

Grantor dc:publisher

University of Helsinki

Year dc:date.issued

2025

Author dc:creator

• Komonen, Pauli

• kuluttajatutkimus, yritysennakointi, tulevaisuudentutkimus

Statement dc:rights

• This publication is copyrighted. You may download, display and print it for Your own personal use. Commercial use is prohibited.
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Language dc:language.iso

eng

Handle dc:identifier.uri

http://hdl.handle.net/10138/589096

OAI record oai:identifier

https://helda.helsinki.fi/server/oai/request?verb=GetRecord&metadataPrefix=dim&identifier=oai%3Ahelda.helsinki.fi%3A10138%2F589096