{"id":{"repo_id":"helsinki","oai_identifier":"oai:helda.helsinki.fi:10138/589096"},"canonical_url":"https://search.dev.ndltd.org/etd/helsinki/oai:helda.helsinki.fi:10138/589096","repository":{"repo_id":"helsinki","name":"University of Helsinki","base_url":"https://helda.helsinki.fi/server/oai/request"},"display":{"title":"Anticipating futures during times of change : Empirical consumer research in corporate foresight","abstract":"This article-based doctoral dissertation examines consumers’ futures thinking and the role of empirical consumer research in corporate foresight. The research was conducted during a period characterised by multiple intertwined crises. Previous research has scarcely addressed the link between consumer research and corporate foresight, and the integration of consumers into foresight processes appears to be rare in the literature. However, companies conducting foresight need to understand consumption futures and engage consumers in foresight. In this dissertation, the dynamics and interpretations of consumers’ futures thinking are addressed. In addition, the applied consumer research methodologies are linked to all parts of a foresight process. The dissertation comprises five original articles. Article I investigates consumers’ futures thinking at the onset of the global health crisis COVID-19. Article II examines future visions of everyday life in a global metropolis by involving consumers with a lead user profile. Article III engages early adopter consumers in last-mile logistics innovation to evaluate and develop future-oriented service concepts. The use of consumer foresight information is examined in an applied corporate foresight context, as Article II was conducted in collaboration with a leading globally operating company and Article III with a locally prominent SME firm. Article IV examines the use of foresight information in large companies with intermediate foresight maturity, identifying four organising archetypes. Article V conducts a qualitative content analysis of future personas created within expert-driven scenario processes, uncovering the limitations of future personas created without consumer and citizen engagement. The study is multidisciplinary, and theoretical approaches from futures studies, corporate foresight, consumer research, and sociology of futures are used to interpret the data. The multi-method approach to data collection derives from consumer research, utilising several methods to collect mainly qualitative but also quantitative data. The study uses interviews, online diaries, chatrooms, a visioning workshop, and a survey to collect data. The participatory approach involves various consumer profiles, such as lead users and early adopters. As the research is partially conducted in collaboration with companies, strategic management and knowledge management perspectives are employed to understand the role of future-oriented consumer insights within organisations and their foresight systems. The consumers studied showed resilience, adaptability, and the capability to look forward in volatile conditions. The changing conditions challenged consumption patterns and lifestyles but also influenced post-crisis horizons. Consumer futures appeared as dynamic spaces of possibilities that present actions could shape, and personal agency was preserved in uncertain and unstable circumstances. Consumers’ future imaginaries included both continuity and discontinuity in relation to the present situation. Consumers’ future expectations did not always align with the companies’ hypotheses. The consumers were capable of imagining a broad range of future possibilities, which were influenced by the concerns, issues, and trends of the time. The interplay between future imaginaries and present actions created anticipation in consumption. Social structures, technologies, and materialities influenced the anticipation. This future orientation in consumption forms a theoretical common ground for consumer research and corporate foresight, and provides applicable insights for corporate foresight practice. Companies' strategic leadership can utilise future-oriented consumption insights at all stages of a generic foresight process. Consumer foresight can be a unique resource, allowing differentiation in competition. As consumers’ roles during different parts of the process vary, choosing an appropriate consumer engagement method for each phase becomes crucial. There is no need to exclude any group of consumers from future-related reflections. This study demonstrates that consumer involvement orientations can be interpretative, visionary, co-creative, and validating. The future orientation in consumption must be recognised in the data to formulate consumer research findings in the form of foresight terminology. This integrative approach can be called participatory consumer foresight.","abstract_html":"This article-based doctoral dissertation examines consumers’ futures thinking and the role of empirical consumer research in corporate foresight. The research was conducted during a period characterised by multiple intertwined crises. Previous research has scarcely addressed the link between consumer research and corporate foresight, and the integration of consumers into foresight processes appears to be rare in the literature. However, companies conducting foresight need to understand consumption futures and engage consumers in foresight. In this dissertation, the dynamics and interpretations of consumers’ futures thinking are addressed. In addition, the applied consumer research methodologies are linked to all parts of a foresight process. The dissertation comprises five original articles. Article I investigates consumers’ futures thinking at the onset of the global health crisis COVID-19. Article II examines future visions of everyday life in a global metropolis by involving consumers with a lead user profile. Article III engages early adopter consumers in last-mile logistics innovation to evaluate and develop future-oriented service concepts. The use of consumer foresight information is examined in an applied corporate foresight context, as Article II was conducted in collaboration with a leading globally operating company and Article III with a locally prominent SME firm. Article IV examines the use of foresight information in large companies with intermediate foresight maturity, identifying four organising archetypes. Article V conducts a qualitative content analysis of future personas created within expert-driven scenario processes, uncovering the limitations of future personas created without consumer and citizen engagement. The study is multidisciplinary, and theoretical approaches from futures studies, corporate foresight, consumer research, and sociology of futures are used to interpret the data. The multi-method approach to data collection derives from consumer research, utilising several methods to collect mainly qualitative but also quantitative data. The study uses interviews, online diaries, chatrooms, a visioning workshop, and a survey to collect data. The participatory approach involves various consumer profiles, such as lead users and early adopters. As the research is partially conducted in collaboration with companies, strategic management and knowledge management perspectives are employed to understand the role of future-oriented consumer insights within organisations and their foresight systems. The consumers studied showed resilience, adaptability, and the capability to look forward in volatile conditions. The changing conditions challenged consumption patterns and lifestyles but also influenced post-crisis horizons. Consumer futures appeared as dynamic spaces of possibilities that present actions could shape, and personal agency was preserved in uncertain and unstable circumstances. Consumers’ future imaginaries included both continuity and discontinuity in relation to the present situation. Consumers’ future expectations did not always align with the companies’ hypotheses. The consumers were capable of imagining a broad range of future possibilities, which were influenced by the concerns, issues, and trends of the time. The interplay between future imaginaries and present actions created anticipation in consumption. Social structures, technologies, and materialities influenced the anticipation. This future orientation in consumption forms a theoretical common ground for consumer research and corporate foresight, and provides applicable insights for corporate foresight practice. Companies' strategic leadership can utilise future-oriented consumption insights at all stages of a generic foresight process. Consumer foresight can be a unique resource, allowing differentiation in competition. As consumers’ roles during different parts of the process vary, choosing an appropriate consumer engagement method for each phase becomes crucial. There is no need to exclude any group of consumers from future-related reflections. This study demonstrates that consumer involvement orientations can be interpretative, visionary, co-creative, and validating. The future orientation in consumption must be recognised in the data to formulate consumer research findings in the form of foresight terminology. This integrative approach can be called participatory consumer foresight.","abstract_has_math":false,"creators":["Komonen, Pauli"],"institution":"University of Helsinki","degree_name":null,"degree_level":null,"degree_discipline":null,"degree_department":null,"school":null,"contributors":[],"advisors":[],"committee_chairs":[],"committee_members":[],"year":2025,"date_issued":"2025-01-16","date_published":"2025-01-16","updated_at":"2026-08-21T22:21:56Z","subjects":["kuluttajatutkimus, yritysennakointi, tulevaisuudentutkimus"],"languages":["eng"],"rights":["This publication is copyrighted. You may download, display and print it for Your own personal use. Commercial use is prohibited.","Julkaisu on tekijänoikeussäännösten alainen. Teosta voi lukea ja tulostaa henkilökohtaista käyttöä varten. Käyttö kaupallisiin tarkoituksiin on kielletty.","Publikationen är skyddad av upphovsrätten. Den får läsas och skrivas ut för personligt bruk. Användning i kommersiellt syfte är förbjuden."],"rights_urls":[],"identifier_entries":[]},"links":{"outbound_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/10138/589096","outbound_label":"Handle","outbound_source":"dc:identifier.uri"},"source_record":{"url":"https://helda.helsinki.fi/server/oai/request?verb=GetRecord&metadataPrefix=dim&identifier=oai%3Ahelda.helsinki.fi%3A10138%2F589096","prefix":"dim"},"metadata_groups":[{"id":"people","label":"People","entries":[{"key":"dc:creator","label":"Author","values":["Komonen, Pauli"]}]},{"id":"academic_context","label":"Academic Context","entries":[{"key":"dc:date.accessioned","label":"Dc Date Accessioned","values":["2024-12-17T08:58:22Z"]},{"key":"dc:date.available","label":"Dc Date Available","values":["2024-12-17T08:58:22Z"]},{"key":"dc:date.issued","label":"Date","values":["2025-01-16"]},{"key":"dc:publisher","label":"Institution","values":["University of Helsinki","Helsingin yliopisto","Helsingfors universitet"]}]},{"id":"subjects_keywords","label":"Subjects and Keywords","entries":[{"key":"dc:subject","label":"Dc Subject","values":["kuluttajatutkimus, yritysennakointi, tulevaisuudentutkimus"]}]},{"id":"language_rights","label":"Language and Rights","entries":[{"key":"dc:language.iso","label":"Language (ISO)","values":["eng"]},{"key":"dc:rights","label":"Dc Rights","values":["This publication is copyrighted. You may download, display and print it for Your own personal use. Commercial use is prohibited.","Julkaisu on tekijänoikeussäännösten alainen. Teosta voi lukea ja tulostaa henkilökohtaista käyttöä varten. Käyttö kaupallisiin tarkoituksiin on kielletty.","Publikationen är skyddad av upphovsrätten. Den får läsas och skrivas ut för personligt bruk. Användning i kommersiellt syfte är förbjuden."]}]},{"id":"identifiers","label":"Identifiers","entries":[{"key":"dc:identifier.uri","label":"Identifier URI","values":["http://hdl.handle.net/10138/589096"]}]},{"id":"additional","label":"Additional Metadata","entries":[{"key":"dc:description.abstract","label":"Abstract","values":["This article-based doctoral dissertation examines consumers’ futures thinking and the role of empirical consumer research in corporate foresight. The research was conducted during a period characterised by multiple intertwined crises. Previous research has scarcely addressed the link between consumer research and corporate foresight, and the integration of consumers into foresight processes appears to be rare in the literature. However, companies conducting foresight need to understand consumption futures and engage consumers in foresight. In this dissertation, the dynamics and interpretations of consumers’ futures thinking are addressed. In addition, the applied consumer research methodologies are linked to all parts of a foresight process. The dissertation comprises five original articles. Article I investigates consumers’ futures thinking at the onset of the global health crisis COVID-19. Article II examines future visions of everyday life in a global metropolis by involving consumers with a lead user profile. Article III engages early adopter consumers in last-mile logistics innovation to evaluate and develop future-oriented service concepts. The use of consumer foresight information is examined in an applied corporate foresight context, as Article II was conducted in collaboration with a leading globally operating company and Article III with a locally prominent SME firm. Article IV examines the use of foresight information in large companies with intermediate foresight maturity, identifying four organising archetypes. Article V conducts a qualitative content analysis of future personas created within expert-driven scenario processes, uncovering the limitations of future personas created without consumer and citizen engagement. The study is multidisciplinary, and theoretical approaches from futures studies, corporate foresight, consumer research, and sociology of futures are used to interpret the data. The multi-method approach to data collection derives from consumer research, utilising several methods to collect mainly qualitative but also quantitative data. The study uses interviews, online diaries, chatrooms, a visioning workshop, and a survey to collect data. The participatory approach involves various consumer profiles, such as lead users and early adopters. As the research is partially conducted in collaboration with companies, strategic management and knowledge management perspectives are employed to understand the role of future-oriented consumer insights within organisations and their foresight systems. The consumers studied showed resilience, adaptability, and the capability to look forward in volatile conditions. The changing conditions challenged consumption patterns and lifestyles but also influenced post-crisis horizons. Consumer futures appeared as dynamic spaces of possibilities that present actions could shape, and personal agency was preserved in uncertain and unstable circumstances. Consumers’ future imaginaries included both continuity and discontinuity in relation to the present situation. Consumers’ future expectations did not always align with the companies’ hypotheses. The consumers were capable of imagining a broad range of future possibilities, which were influenced by the concerns, issues, and trends of the time. The interplay between future imaginaries and present actions created anticipation in consumption. Social structures, technologies, and materialities influenced the anticipation. This future orientation in consumption forms a theoretical common ground for consumer research and corporate foresight, and provides applicable insights for corporate foresight practice. Companies' strategic leadership can utilise future-oriented consumption insights at all stages of a generic foresight process. Consumer foresight can be a unique resource, allowing differentiation in competition. As consumers’ roles during different parts of the process vary, choosing an appropriate consumer engagement method for each phase becomes crucial. There is no need to exclude any group of consumers from future-related reflections. This study demonstrates that consumer involvement orientations can be interpretative, visionary, co-creative, and validating. The future orientation in consumption must be recognised in the data to formulate consumer research findings in the form of foresight terminology. This integrative approach can be called participatory consumer foresight.","Väitöskirjassa tarkastellaan kuluttajien tulevaisuutta koskevaa ajattelua ja kuluttajatutkimuksen roolia yritysten ennakointitoiminnassa. Tutkimus toteutettiin aikana, jota leimasivat useat toisiinsa kietoutuneet kriisit. Aiemmassa tutkimuksessa ei ole juurikaan käsitelty kuluttajatutkimuksen ja yritysennakoinnin välistä yhteyttä, ja kuluttajien kytkeminen ennakointiprosesseihin on tutkimuskirjallisuudessa harvinaista. Ennakointia tekevien yritysten kannattaa kuitenkin ymmärtää kulutuksen tulevaisuutta ja ottaa kuluttajat mukaan ennakointiin. Tutkimus on poikkitieteellinen, ja sen aineiston tulkinnassa käytetään tulevaisuudentutkimuksen, yritysennakoinnin, kuluttajatutkimuksen ja tulevaisuuteen suuntautuvan sosiologian teoreettisia lähestymistapoja. Aineistonkeruun monimenetelmällinen lähestymistapa on peräisin kuluttajatutkimuksesta, ja tutkimus hyödyntää useita menetelmiä pääosin laadullisen mutta myös määrällisen aineiston keruussa. Tutkimuksessa hyödynnetään muun muassa haastatteluja, verkkopäiväkirjoja, verkkokeskusteluja, visiointityöpajoja ja kyselytutkimusta aineiston keräämiseksi. Osallistava lähestymistapa kattaa erilaisia kuluttajaprofiileja. Koska tutkimus on tehty osittain yhteistyössä yritysten kanssa, strategisen johtamisen ja tietojohtamisen näkökulmat auttavat tulkitsemaan, miten tulevaisuuteen suuntautunutta kuluttajaymmärrystä hyödynnetään organisaatioissa ja niiden ennakointijärjestelmissä. Tutkimukseen osallistuneet kuluttajat ilmaisivat joustavuutta, sopeutuvuutta ja kykyä katsoa eteenpäin epävakaissa olosuhteissa. Muuttuvat olosuhteet haastoivat kulutustottumukset ja elämäntavan, mutta vaikuttivat myös kriisin jälkeisiin tulevaisuusnäkymiin. Henkilökohtainen toimijuus säilyi epävarmoissa olosuhteissa. Kuluttajien tulevaisuuskuviin sisältyi sekä jatkuvuutta että epäjatkuvuutta suhteessa lähtökohtiin. Kuluttajien tulevaisuuden odotukset eivät aina vastanneet yritysten oletuksia. Kuluttajat pystyivät kuvittelemaan monia erilaisia tulevaisuuden mahdollisuuksia, joihin vaikuttivat nykyhetken ilmiöt ja yhteiskunnallinen keskustelu. Yritysten strategisessa johtamisessa voidaan hyödyntää tulevaisuuteen suuntautunutta kuluttajaymmärrystä ennakointityön kaikissa vaiheissa. Kulutuksen ennakointi voi mahdollistaa erottumisen yritysten välisessä kilpailussa markkinoilla. Koska kuluttajien roolit ennakointiprosessin eri vaiheissa vaihtelevat, on tärkeää valita kuhunkin vaiheeseen sopiva kuluttajien osallistamisen menetelmä. Mitään kuluttajaryhmää ei tarvitse sulkea pois tulevaisuuden tarkastelusta. Tässä tutkimuksessa kuluttajien osallistamisen tavat olivat tulkitsevia, visionäärisiä, yhteiskehittäviä, ja validoivia. Kulutuksen tulevaisuusorientaatio on tunnistettava, jotta kuluttajatutkimuksen tulokset ovat hyödynnettävissä ennakoinnin yhteydessä. Tutkimus kutsuu lähestymistapaa osallistavaksi kuluttajaennakoinniksi."]},{"key":"dc:format.mimetype","label":"Dc Format Mimetype","values":["application/pdf"]},{"key":"dc:title","label":"Title","values":["Anticipating futures during times of change : Empirical consumer research in corporate foresight"]}]}],"canonical_facts":{"dc:creator":["Komonen, Pauli"],"dc:date.accessioned":["2024-12-17T08:58:22Z"],"dc:date.available":["2024-12-17T08:58:22Z"],"dc:date.issued":["2025-01-16"],"dc:description.abstract":["This article-based doctoral dissertation examines consumers’ futures thinking and the role of empirical consumer research in corporate foresight. The research was conducted during a period characterised by multiple intertwined crises. Previous research has scarcely addressed the link between consumer research and corporate foresight, and the integration of consumers into foresight processes appears to be rare in the literature. However, companies conducting foresight need to understand consumption futures and engage consumers in foresight. In this dissertation, the dynamics and interpretations of consumers’ futures thinking are addressed. In addition, the applied consumer research methodologies are linked to all parts of a foresight process. The dissertation comprises five original articles. Article I investigates consumers’ futures thinking at the onset of the global health crisis COVID-19. Article II examines future visions of everyday life in a global metropolis by involving consumers with a lead user profile. Article III engages early adopter consumers in last-mile logistics innovation to evaluate and develop future-oriented service concepts. The use of consumer foresight information is examined in an applied corporate foresight context, as Article II was conducted in collaboration with a leading globally operating company and Article III with a locally prominent SME firm. Article IV examines the use of foresight information in large companies with intermediate foresight maturity, identifying four organising archetypes. Article V conducts a qualitative content analysis of future personas created within expert-driven scenario processes, uncovering the limitations of future personas created without consumer and citizen engagement. The study is multidisciplinary, and theoretical approaches from futures studies, corporate foresight, consumer research, and sociology of futures are used to interpret the data. The multi-method approach to data collection derives from consumer research, utilising several methods to collect mainly qualitative but also quantitative data. The study uses interviews, online diaries, chatrooms, a visioning workshop, and a survey to collect data. The participatory approach involves various consumer profiles, such as lead users and early adopters. As the research is partially conducted in collaboration with companies, strategic management and knowledge management perspectives are employed to understand the role of future-oriented consumer insights within organisations and their foresight systems. The consumers studied showed resilience, adaptability, and the capability to look forward in volatile conditions. The changing conditions challenged consumption patterns and lifestyles but also influenced post-crisis horizons. Consumer futures appeared as dynamic spaces of possibilities that present actions could shape, and personal agency was preserved in uncertain and unstable circumstances. Consumers’ future imaginaries included both continuity and discontinuity in relation to the present situation. Consumers’ future expectations did not always align with the companies’ hypotheses. The consumers were capable of imagining a broad range of future possibilities, which were influenced by the concerns, issues, and trends of the time. The interplay between future imaginaries and present actions created anticipation in consumption. Social structures, technologies, and materialities influenced the anticipation. This future orientation in consumption forms a theoretical common ground for consumer research and corporate foresight, and provides applicable insights for corporate foresight practice. Companies' strategic leadership can utilise future-oriented consumption insights at all stages of a generic foresight process. Consumer foresight can be a unique resource, allowing differentiation in competition. As consumers’ roles during different parts of the process vary, choosing an appropriate consumer engagement method for each phase becomes crucial. There is no need to exclude any group of consumers from future-related reflections. This study demonstrates that consumer involvement orientations can be interpretative, visionary, co-creative, and validating. The future orientation in consumption must be recognised in the data to formulate consumer research findings in the form of foresight terminology. This integrative approach can be called participatory consumer foresight.","Väitöskirjassa tarkastellaan kuluttajien tulevaisuutta koskevaa ajattelua ja kuluttajatutkimuksen roolia yritysten ennakointitoiminnassa. Tutkimus toteutettiin aikana, jota leimasivat useat toisiinsa kietoutuneet kriisit. Aiemmassa tutkimuksessa ei ole juurikaan käsitelty kuluttajatutkimuksen ja yritysennakoinnin välistä yhteyttä, ja kuluttajien kytkeminen ennakointiprosesseihin on tutkimuskirjallisuudessa harvinaista. Ennakointia tekevien yritysten kannattaa kuitenkin ymmärtää kulutuksen tulevaisuutta ja ottaa kuluttajat mukaan ennakointiin. Tutkimus on poikkitieteellinen, ja sen aineiston tulkinnassa käytetään tulevaisuudentutkimuksen, yritysennakoinnin, kuluttajatutkimuksen ja tulevaisuuteen suuntautuvan sosiologian teoreettisia lähestymistapoja. Aineistonkeruun monimenetelmällinen lähestymistapa on peräisin kuluttajatutkimuksesta, ja tutkimus hyödyntää useita menetelmiä pääosin laadullisen mutta myös määrällisen aineiston keruussa. Tutkimuksessa hyödynnetään muun muassa haastatteluja, verkkopäiväkirjoja, verkkokeskusteluja, visiointityöpajoja ja kyselytutkimusta aineiston keräämiseksi. Osallistava lähestymistapa kattaa erilaisia kuluttajaprofiileja. Koska tutkimus on tehty osittain yhteistyössä yritysten kanssa, strategisen johtamisen ja tietojohtamisen näkökulmat auttavat tulkitsemaan, miten tulevaisuuteen suuntautunutta kuluttajaymmärrystä hyödynnetään organisaatioissa ja niiden ennakointijärjestelmissä. Tutkimukseen osallistuneet kuluttajat ilmaisivat joustavuutta, sopeutuvuutta ja kykyä katsoa eteenpäin epävakaissa olosuhteissa. Muuttuvat olosuhteet haastoivat kulutustottumukset ja elämäntavan, mutta vaikuttivat myös kriisin jälkeisiin tulevaisuusnäkymiin. Henkilökohtainen toimijuus säilyi epävarmoissa olosuhteissa. Kuluttajien tulevaisuuskuviin sisältyi sekä jatkuvuutta että epäjatkuvuutta suhteessa lähtökohtiin. Kuluttajien tulevaisuuden odotukset eivät aina vastanneet yritysten oletuksia. Kuluttajat pystyivät kuvittelemaan monia erilaisia tulevaisuuden mahdollisuuksia, joihin vaikuttivat nykyhetken ilmiöt ja yhteiskunnallinen keskustelu. Yritysten strategisessa johtamisessa voidaan hyödyntää tulevaisuuteen suuntautunutta kuluttajaymmärrystä ennakointityön kaikissa vaiheissa. Kulutuksen ennakointi voi mahdollistaa erottumisen yritysten välisessä kilpailussa markkinoilla. Koska kuluttajien roolit ennakointiprosessin eri vaiheissa vaihtelevat, on tärkeää valita kuhunkin vaiheeseen sopiva kuluttajien osallistamisen menetelmä. Mitään kuluttajaryhmää ei tarvitse sulkea pois tulevaisuuden tarkastelusta. Tässä tutkimuksessa kuluttajien osallistamisen tavat olivat tulkitsevia, visionäärisiä, yhteiskehittäviä, ja validoivia. Kulutuksen tulevaisuusorientaatio on tunnistettava, jotta kuluttajatutkimuksen tulokset ovat hyödynnettävissä ennakoinnin yhteydessä. Tutkimus kutsuu lähestymistapaa osallistavaksi kuluttajaennakoinniksi."],"dc:format.mimetype":["application/pdf"],"dc:identifier.uri":["http://hdl.handle.net/10138/589096"],"dc:language.iso":["eng"],"dc:publisher":["University of Helsinki","Helsingin yliopisto","Helsingfors universitet"],"dc:rights":["This publication is copyrighted. You may download, display and print it for Your own personal use. Commercial use is prohibited.","Julkaisu on tekijänoikeussäännösten alainen. Teosta voi lukea ja tulostaa henkilökohtaista käyttöä varten. Käyttö kaupallisiin tarkoituksiin on kielletty.","Publikationen är skyddad av upphovsrätten. Den får läsas och skrivas ut för personligt bruk. Användning i kommersiellt syfte är förbjuden."],"dc:subject":["kuluttajatutkimus, yritysennakointi, tulevaisuudentutkimus"],"dc:title":["Anticipating futures during times of change : Empirical consumer research in corporate foresight"]},"updated_at":"2026-08-21T22:21:56Z"}