Assessing agricultural expansion in upper Lunsemfwa river catchment: a case study of the upper Lunsemfwa river catchment, central province, Zambia.
Understanding dynamics occurring in land utilization and land cover is essential for analysing and assessing long-term transformations. These transformations in land cover primarily result from deforestation, which involves the conversion of forests into other land cover types such as agricultural land and human settlements or infrastructure development for economic growth. The problem highlighted in this study is the increasing dominance of agricultural activities in the Upper Lunsemfwa River Catchment (ULRC) and their potential impact on land cover. It also emphasizes the threats posed to land and water resources by agricultural expansion and the loss of natural resources due to economic development. To help with understanding and assessing the magnitude of change and possible future changes in the study area land use and land cover classification was done using remote sensing and GIS. This was done using remotely accessed imagery for the years 1990, 2005 and 2020 from climate engine (Landsat 5 and 8). The images where processed and analysed using QGIS and IDRISI. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the extent agricultural expansion within the Upper Lunsemfwa River Catchment, focusing specifically on the evaluation of various land uses. With specific objectives to evaluate Land Use and Land Cover change trends in the Upper Lunsemfwa River Catchment and Simulate future scenarios of land cover and agricultural expansion of the study area. The findings showed that from 1990 to 2020 observations indicate a -10.3% decrease in forest cover and a 25.90% increase in agriculture land cover, accompanied by minimal changes of -0.4% in water bodies, and stable decrease in built-up areas from 3.20% to 1.9% and 68% to 54.01% in grasslands. The results also showed a dominance in agriculture and a decline in non-agricultural land. Agricultural land increased from 13.60 % to 39.52 % between 1990 and 2020 respectively. On the other hand, there was a reduction in non agricultural land from 86.38 % to 60.48% in 2020. From the predicted 2050 land cover map, the observations suggest a positive trend of 16.24% towards increased forest coverage, a reduction of -20.66% in crop land, stabile reduction of -0.16% in water bodies. Built-up areas showed an expansion of 2.98%, and an increase of 1.69% in grassland. This shows a clear trend of agricultural expansion and a corresponding reduction in non-agricultural land over the decades. Thus, the importance of monitoring and managing these changes sustainably to ensure the well-being of both humans and the environment.
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