{"id":{"repo_id":"york","oai_identifier":"oai:yorkspace.library.yorku.ca:10315/37862"},"canonical_url":"https://search.dev.ndltd.org/etd/york/oai:yorkspace.library.yorku.ca:10315/37862","repository":{"repo_id":"york","name":"York University","base_url":"https://yorkspace.library.yorku.ca/oai/request"},"display":{"title":"Probabilistic Flood Risk Assessment Under Climate Change Scenarios in the Humber River Watershed","abstract":"Flood frequency is expected to increase due to climate change. This research uses the CAPRA method to perform flood risk assessment in the Humber River watershed. The economic and social damages are quantified under current and future climate conditions. First current and future stochastic precipitation maps are generated. The future precipitations consider the climate scenarios from the IPCC AR5 for three time periods. Next the corresponding floodplain maps are generated using hydrological (HEC-HMS) and hydraulic models (HEC-RAS). Finally, flood risk is calculated by integrating the floodplain maps with the vulnerability of exposed elements. Results reveal an increase in the flood risk for most of the climate scenarios by the end of the 21st century, where the highest and lowest flood risk are for the RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5 scenarios, respectively. The long-term period shows the highest increases. Further sensitivity and uncertainty analysis is recommended for future research.","abstract_html":"Flood frequency is expected to increase due to climate change. This research uses the CAPRA method to perform flood risk assessment in the Humber River watershed. The economic and social damages are quantified under current and future climate conditions. First current and future stochastic precipitation maps are generated. The future precipitations consider the climate scenarios from the IPCC AR5 for three time periods. Next the corresponding floodplain maps are generated using hydrological (HEC-HMS) and hydraulic models (HEC-RAS). Finally, flood risk is calculated by integrating the floodplain maps with the vulnerability of exposed elements. Results reveal an increase in the flood risk for most of the climate scenarios by the end of the 21st century, where the highest and lowest flood risk are for the RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5 scenarios, respectively. The long-term period shows the highest increases. Further sensitivity and uncertainty analysis is recommended for future research.","abstract_has_math":false,"creators":["Rincon, Daniela"],"institution":null,"degree_name":null,"degree_level":null,"degree_discipline":null,"degree_department":null,"school":null,"contributors":[],"advisors":["Khan, Usman T,","Tsanis, Ioannis K."],"committee_chairs":[],"committee_members":[],"year":2020,"date_issued":"2020-11-13","date_published":"2020-11-13","updated_at":"2026-07-24T06:33:53Z","subjects":["Hydrologic sciences"],"languages":["en"],"rights":["Author owns copyright, except where explicitly noted. Please contact the author directly with licensing requests."],"rights_urls":[],"identifier_entries":[]},"links":{"outbound_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/10315/37862","outbound_label":"Handle","outbound_source":"dc:identifier.uri"},"metadata_groups":[{"id":"people","label":"People","entries":[{"key":"dc:contributor.advisor","label":"Advisor","values":["Khan, Usman T,","Tsanis, Ioannis K."]},{"key":"dc:creator","label":"Author","values":["Rincon, Daniela"]}]},{"id":"academic_context","label":"Academic Context","entries":[{"key":"dc:date.accessioned","label":"Dc Date Accessioned","values":["2020-11-13T13:43:59Z"]},{"key":"dc:date.available","label":"Dc Date Available","values":["2020-11-13T13:43:59Z"]},{"key":"dc:date.issued","label":"Date","values":["2020-11-13"]},{"key":"dc:type","label":"Dc Type","values":["Electronic Thesis or Dissertation"]}]},{"id":"subjects_keywords","label":"Subjects and Keywords","entries":[{"key":"dc:subject","label":"Dc Subject","values":["Hydrologic sciences"]}]},{"id":"language_rights","label":"Language and Rights","entries":[{"key":"dc:language","label":"Dc Language","values":["en"]},{"key":"dc:rights","label":"Dc Rights","values":["Author owns copyright, except where explicitly noted. Please contact the author directly with licensing requests."]}]},{"id":"identifiers","label":"Identifiers","entries":[{"key":"dc:identifier.uri","label":"Identifier URI","values":["http://hdl.handle.net/10315/37862"]}]},{"id":"additional","label":"Additional Metadata","entries":[{"key":"dc:description.abstract","label":"Abstract","values":["Flood frequency is expected to increase due to climate change. This research uses the CAPRA method to perform flood risk assessment in the Humber River watershed. The economic and social damages are quantified under current and future climate conditions. First current and future stochastic precipitation maps are generated. The future precipitations consider the climate scenarios from the IPCC AR5 for three time periods. Next the corresponding floodplain maps are generated using hydrological (HEC-HMS) and hydraulic models (HEC-RAS). Finally, flood risk is calculated by integrating the floodplain maps with the vulnerability of exposed elements. Results reveal an increase in the flood risk for most of the climate scenarios by the end of the 21st century, where the highest and lowest flood risk are for the RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5 scenarios, respectively. The long-term period shows the highest increases. Further sensitivity and uncertainty analysis is recommended for future research."]},{"key":"dc:title","label":"Title","values":["Probabilistic Flood Risk Assessment Under Climate Change Scenarios in the Humber River Watershed"]}]}],"canonical_facts":{"dc:contributor.advisor":["Khan, Usman T,","Tsanis, Ioannis K."],"dc:creator":["Rincon, Daniela"],"dc:date.accessioned":["2020-11-13T13:43:59Z"],"dc:date.available":["2020-11-13T13:43:59Z"],"dc:date.issued":["2020-11-13"],"dc:description.abstract":["Flood frequency is expected to increase due to climate change. This research uses the CAPRA method to perform flood risk assessment in the Humber River watershed. The economic and social damages are quantified under current and future climate conditions. First current and future stochastic precipitation maps are generated. The future precipitations consider the climate scenarios from the IPCC AR5 for three time periods. Next the corresponding floodplain maps are generated using hydrological (HEC-HMS) and hydraulic models (HEC-RAS). Finally, flood risk is calculated by integrating the floodplain maps with the vulnerability of exposed elements. Results reveal an increase in the flood risk for most of the climate scenarios by the end of the 21st century, where the highest and lowest flood risk are for the RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5 scenarios, respectively. The long-term period shows the highest increases. Further sensitivity and uncertainty analysis is recommended for future research."],"dc:identifier.uri":["http://hdl.handle.net/10315/37862"],"dc:language":["en"],"dc:rights":["Author owns copyright, except where explicitly noted. Please contact the author directly with licensing requests."],"dc:subject":["Hydrologic sciences"],"dc:title":["Probabilistic Flood Risk Assessment Under Climate Change Scenarios in the Humber River Watershed"],"dc:type":["Electronic Thesis or Dissertation"]},"updated_at":"2026-07-24T06:33:53Z"}