Ground-Level Ozone Across Kentucky: Modeling and a Synoptic Analysis of High Concentrations
type: CreativeWork
description: Rural areas are often more susceptible to high concentrations of ground-level ozone (O3) than urban areas. However, rural populations are, for the most part, unaware of this problem. Currently the rural areas of Kentucky have no daily forecast for O3. This research addresses the issue by using methodologies from previous Kentucky O3 modeling research to develop a daily forecast model within Geographic Information Systems. The rural O3 model developed by Kendrick (2005) will be used in this research, as a Standard model, along with an application of the model introduced by Cobourn and Hubbard (1999), as the Hi model, to be used on days that O3 concentrations are expected. When the forecasted maximum temperature is less (greater) than 87°F, the diurnal temperature range is less (greater) than 27, and the probability for precipitation is less (greater) than 50 percent then the Hybrid will choose the Standard (Hi) model. Data for the both models came from the Model Output Statistic by the National Weather Service. The Standard model proves to be successful in forecasting O3 while the Hi model is less accurate. Synoptic meteorology conditions were analyzed to find patterns that are associated with high O3 concentrations for rural areas. Data collected at Mammoth Cave National Park (MCNP) (30 miles north of Bowling Green, KY) during 1998 to 2005 was used in this analysis. The methodology presented by Sheridan (2002) was used to define the overall synoptic patterns that were present during 1998 to 2003. It was found that Dry Moderate and Dry Tropical air masses frequently had high O3 associated with them during late August and early September. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is responsible for policies that fulfill the primary and secondary goals of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS), which includes O3. Prior to 1998 it was determined that al-hour average ambient O3 measurement less than 125 parts per billion (ppb) would be sufficient in achieving…
abstract: Rural areas are often more susceptible to high concentrations of ground-level ozone (O3) than urban areas. However, rural populations are, for the most part, unaware of this problem. Currently the rural areas of Kentucky have no daily forecast for O3. This research addresses the issue by using methodologies from previous Kentucky O3 modeling research to develop a daily forecast model within Geographic Information Systems. The rural O3 model developed by Kendrick (2005) will be used in this research, as a Standard model, along with an application of the model introduced by Cobourn and Hubbard (1999), as the Hi model, to be used on days that O3 concentrations are expected. When the forecasted maximum temperature is less (greater) than 87°F, the diurnal temperature range is less (greater) than 27, and the probability for precipitation is less (greater) than 50 percent then the Hybrid will choose the Standard (Hi) model. Data for the both models came from the Model Output Statistic by the National Weather Service. The Standard model proves to be successful in forecasting O3 while the Hi model is less accurate. Synoptic meteorology conditions were analyzed to find patterns that are associated with high O3 concentrations for rural areas. Data collected at Mammoth Cave National Park (MCNP) (30 miles north of Bowling Green, KY) during 1998 to 2005 was used in this analysis. The methodology presented by Sheridan (2002) was used to define the overall synoptic patterns that were present during 1998 to 2003. It was found that Dry Moderate and Dry Tropical air masses frequently had high O3 associated with them during late August and early September. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is responsible for policies that fulfill the primary and secondary goals of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS), which includes O3. Prior to 1998 it was determined that al-hour average ambient O3 measurement less than 125 parts per billion (ppb) would be sufficient in achieving…
author: Walker, John
keywords: Earth Sciences, Geology
date published: 2007-12-01T08:00:00Z
date modified: 2026-07-24T06:07:22Z
provider: Western Kentucky University
publisher: Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations
type: WebPage
source organization: Western Kentucky University